554
FXUS63 KFSD 012354
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
554 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION RISKS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY CONTINUE TO
SHIFT FURTHER NORTH, REDUCING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
IN THE LOCAL AREA. PROBABILITY OF 1" OF SNOW HAS FALLEN TO
AROUND 30% ALONG HIGHWAY 14.
- TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK, HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS NOT EXPECTED.
- A COUPLE SNOW RISKS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, FOCUSED AROUND
LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR VERY LOW AMOUNTS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
THIS AFTERNOON: WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLED DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO END AS SCHEDULED.
A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AS A WEAK MID-LVL WAVE
MOVED THROUGH, BUT MOST AREAS HAVE REMAINED DRY. AT THE SURFACE, A
WEAK TROUGH HAS ENDED UP ABOUT 50 MILES FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY'S FORECAST, KEEPING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
PINNED FURTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH UPPER CLOUDS AND
A LESS FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST WIND HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
FURTHER EAST.
TONIGHT: WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET, BUT WE MAY
STILL HAVE VARIABLE UPPER CLOUD COVER LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THUS, ANTICIPATING A WARMER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
IN MOST LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY: A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH BY MID-
DAY, HOWEVER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE QUITE
PLEASANT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHILE
MIXING WILL BE QUITE LIGHT ON SUNDAY, RESIDUAL WARM AIR ALOFT AND
DECENT EARLY SUN, SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND EVEN A
FEW 50S. BY THE AFTERNOON WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EVENTUALLY INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES TO LIGHT RAIN ALONG A NARROW WEST TO EAST
FRONTAL BAND LIFTING NORTHWARD.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH FRONTAL BAND FURTHER
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH STRONG FORCING NOW LIFTING
AS FAR NORTH AS THE ND/SD BORDER REGIONS BY MIDNIGHT. WHILE
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO FALL NORTH OF THE
CWA, GIVEN THE INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THE BAND, THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF FEEDER BANDS MAY TAKE PLACE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14
CORRIDOR, KEEPING THE NEED FOR A PERSISTENT POP THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER, QPF HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD WITH STRONG AGREEMENT
IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OF ONLY UP TO A 20% PROBABILITY OF 0.10" OF
QPF ALONG HIGHWAY 14.
MONDAY: AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY EARLY
MONDAY, WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE COLDER AIR SETTLE SOUTHWARD. THERE WILL
LIKELY NOT BE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES STAY
QUITE STAGNANT THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES MAY BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-29 THROUGH MID-DAY.
TUESDAY: MID-LVL HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS, A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND, AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: PERHAPS OUR NEXT REASONABLE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY. A DIP IN THE MID-LVL FLOW ALLOWS A MID-LVL TROUGH TO
ENTER THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST DYNAMICAL
FORCING FOCUSED OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HOWEVER,
BROAD WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE COULD INDUCE AT LEAST A LOW
END RISK FOR LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF
AND IT'S ENSEMBLE REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH SOLUTION, BUT KEEPS THE
PROBABILITY OF ANY MORE THAN 0.10" OF QPF AT LESS THAN 20%. THE GEFS
HAS ALMOST ZERO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME, AND ALL OF THE MOISTURE AND QPF CONFINED FURTHER NORTH.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: PERHAPS ONE TIME PERIOD WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH MORE
CLOSELY FOR SLIGHTLY MORE IMPACTFUL SNOW POTENTIAL FALLS WITHIN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. THERE HAS BEEN DECENT RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY IN BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATING AN OPEN
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY HOWEVER, WITH MOST OF THE DIFFERENCES FOCUSED ON
LOCATION VS OCCURRENCE/DEVELOPMENT, WHICH KEEPS OVERALL
PROBABILITY NUMBERS LOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF
PERIOD MOSTLY DUE TO LOW HANGING STRATUS. TAKING A LOOK AT
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AREAS OF VFR TO MVFR STRATUS CONTINUE TO SIT
OVER AREAS EAST OF I-29 AND SOUTH OF I-90 THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOWEST CEILINGS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MN. WHILE THERE
SHOULDN'T BE MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVERNIGHT, COULD SEE THE
LOWEST STRATUS OVER SOUTHWESTERN MN STRETCH SOUTHWARDS INTO
NORTHWESTERN IA LEADING TO MORE MVFR CEILINGS FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE THIS EVENING EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...GUMBS
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