018
FXUS63 KFSD 020856
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
256 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR AND EAST OF I-29 THIS
MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING SOME
PATCHY SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- FINAL DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
- MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. HIGHWAY 14 LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY
LOCATION THAT MAY SEE VERY MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS.
- A COUPLE LIGHT SNOW RISKS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, FOCUSED
AROUND LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR LOWER AMOUNTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA WITH JUST MINOR AMOUNTS ALONG HIGHWAY 14. WHILE WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING WAVE MAXIMIZES AROUND 850 MB
RIGHT OVER I-90, SATURATION IS A MAJOR PROBLEM ALONG WITH NOTHING
UNSTABLE ABOVE THE FRONT. THE MORE ACTIVE LAYER LOOKS TO BE CLOSER
TO 750 MB WITH SOME MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS LEVEL.
THE DGZ IS ALSO STRUGGLING TO PLAY A ROLE IN THIS SYSTEM WITH IT
LOCATED ABOVE 600 MB. SO, WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND, KEEPING THE
MAJORITY OF THE SNOW NORTH OF THE AREA MAKES SENSE. THE LATEST GEFS
PAINTS ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ALONG
HIGHWAY 14 WHILE THE EC ENSEMBLE IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-29.
WHILE THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT INTO THE AFTERNOON SO THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE THIS
FOG COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
AS THIS WAVE PASSES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING COLDER AIR
WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN FAIRLY LOCKED IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEK. A MID WEEK WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME BRIEF
WARM ADVECTION TO THE AREA WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW, BUT
ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES THE COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN.
HIGHS FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH SOME 30S LIKELY
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO NORTHWEST IA. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE EXCEEDINGLY COLD, BUT WHEN COUPLED WITH THE WIND SOME
BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY, BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS. SO OVERALL, A FAIRLY NORMAL COLD SPELL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH VERY LIMITED IMPACTS FROM ANY LIGHT SNOW AND COLD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE THE COLDEST TIMEFRAME
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR TO LIFR VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD MOSTLY DUE TO LOW HANGING STRATUS AND
DEVELOPING AREAS OF FOG. TAKING A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY, LOW
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS CONTINUE SIT OVER A FEW AREAS EAST OF I-29
THIS EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING WITH IT. AS WE
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE I-29 CORRIDOR WITH IFR TO
LIFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BY SUNDAY TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR SDZ055-056-
062-067-071.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ080-089-
090-097-098.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...GUMBS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page