231
FXUS63 KFSD 021727
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1127 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR AND EAST OF I-29 THIS
MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING SOME
PATCHY SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- FINAL DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
- MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. HIGHWAY 14 LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY
LOCATION THAT MAY SEE VERY MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS.
- A COUPLE LIGHT SNOW RISKS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, FOCUSED
AROUND LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR LOWER AMOUNTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA WITH JUST MINOR AMOUNTS ALONG HIGHWAY 14. WHILE WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING WAVE MAXIMIZES AROUND 850 MB
RIGHT OVER I-90, SATURATION IS A MAJOR PROBLEM ALONG WITH NOTHING
UNSTABLE ABOVE THE FRONT. THE MORE ACTIVE LAYER LOOKS TO BE CLOSER
TO 750 MB WITH SOME MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS LEVEL.
THE DGZ IS ALSO STRUGGLING TO PLAY A ROLE IN THIS SYSTEM WITH IT
LOCATED ABOVE 600 MB. SO, WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND, KEEPING THE
MAJORITY OF THE SNOW NORTH OF THE AREA MAKES SENSE. THE LATEST GEFS
PAINTS ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ALONG
HIGHWAY 14 WHILE THE EC ENSEMBLE IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-29.
WHILE THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT INTO THE AFTERNOON SO THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE THIS
FOG COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
AS THIS WAVE PASSES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING COLDER AIR
WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN FAIRLY LOCKED IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEK. A MID WEEK WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME BRIEF
WARM ADVECTION TO THE AREA WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW, BUT
ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES THE COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN.
HIGHS FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH SOME 30S LIKELY
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO NORTHWEST IA. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE EXCEEDINGLY COLD, BUT WHEN COUPLED WITH THE WIND SOME
BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY, BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS. SO OVERALL, A FAIRLY NORMAL COLD SPELL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH VERY LIMITED IMPACTS FROM ANY LIGHT SNOW AND COLD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE THE COLDEST TIMEFRAME
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
PATCHY MVFR STRATUS NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL PERSIST
INTO MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE LIKELY MIXING OUT. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AREAWIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE'LL WATCH
NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY LOWER CEILINGS SLIGHTLY AND
PRODUCE LOW END RISK FOR SPRINKLES TO LIGHT RAIN.
THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING, WITH STRATUS BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA WHERE FOG MAY AGAIN FORM IN AN AREA OF
INCREASED RADIATIONAL COOLING. ELSEWHERE MVFR STRATUS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...DUX
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