377
FXUS63 KFSD 051127
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
527 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 50 TO 60
MPH ALONG AND EAST OF I-29. STRONG GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-DAY TODAY, BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
- A BAND OF SNOW HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING EAST OF I-29.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR LESS IS EXPECTED,
ALTHOUGH HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE IN A BAND FROM
LYON/OSCEOLA COUNTY IN IOWA SOUTH TO WOODBURY AND IDA
COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, AND
TRAVEL IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEDNESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.
- A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA, NORTHWEST IOWA, FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA, AND FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH REMAINS IN
EFFECT ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 81 THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS AT OR ABOVE 40 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN
OBSERVED IN THIS AREA.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
TODAY: LIGHT SNOW LINGERS MOSTLY EAST OF I-29 THIS MORNING AS
YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION TO THE EAST. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
IOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY-NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE DAY TODAY, WHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY TURNS OUR WINDS SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MARCH 5TH, IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS WILL BE A BIT COOL
THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
THANKS TO SOME WEAK WAA, IN THE 40S. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN LOW STAYS TO OUR SOUTH, BUT A
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700-650 MB LAYER PUSHES NORTH INTO
OUR REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SATURATED AIR MASS WITH
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE THE 700-650 MB LAYER. ALL THIS
COMBINES TO CREATE WHAT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A BANDED SNOW
EVENT BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES
PRECIPITATION TYPE AT ONSET WILL BE LIGHT RAIN THAT TRANSITIONS
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW LOOKS
TO FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90, WITH THE HEAVIEST PART OF THE
BAND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AREAS NORTH
OF I-90 MAY STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW, BUT THE GRADIENT DROPS
OFF QUICKLY. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE LOCATION OF THE BAND. STILL, EXPECT AT
LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF FRESH SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS
MENTIONED, THERE IS A TIGHT GRADIENT FOR WHERE THE SNOW WILL
FALL. BETWEEN I-90 AND THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, LREF INDICATES
THERE IS A 30-80% PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH OR MORE SNOW, WITH
PARBOILED INCREASING AS YOU GO SOUTH. THOSE PROBABILITIES DROP
OFF QUICKLY WITH 2, AND 3 INCHES. AS FAR AS THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AND SOUTH, THERE IS AN 80-100% PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH OR
MORE NEW SNOW, A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF 2 INCHES, AND 50-70%
PROBABILITY OF 3 INCHES.
THANKFULLY WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIGHT, ONLY AROUND 10-15 MPH, SO
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW RATIOS FROM THE NBM LOOKED A BIT LOW, SO
AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS, BUMPED THOSE UP A BIT WITH A
BLEND OF NBM/NBM75TH. IN ADDITION, FELT THE NBM TEMPERATURES WERE
TOO WARM AND SO BUMPED THOSE DOWN A TOUCH WITH THE NBM/NBM10TH.
HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH A FEW 40S IN THE HURON/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AREA.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND: THINGS DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND WE BEGIN A
WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
AND HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
WITH 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS WE WATCH A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS MOVED EAST OF I-29, HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES CONTINUE TO SHOW ON RADAR OVER KFSD AND KSUX. EXPECT
THESE LIGHT FLURRIES TO CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. UNDER
AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW, IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXIST WITH
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2 MILES OR LESS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING, AND REACHING VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK, AND BE UP TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF 40-45 KTS ALONG AND EAST OF I-29. WEST OF HERE GUSTS ARE 35-
40 KTS. WINDS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SDZ056-062-067-070.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SDZ040-
055-056-062-066-067-069>071.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ040-
056-062-066-067-069>071.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SDZ071.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ097-098.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-
072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ071-
072-080-089-097-098.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-
072-080-089.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ081-090.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ001.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ001-
002-012-020-031.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR IAZ002-
012-020-031.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ003-013-014-021-
022-032.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ013-
014.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ013-
014.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ013-
014.
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...AJP
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