836
FXUS63 KFSD 051806
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1206 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG
AND EAST OF I-29. STRONG GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-DAY
TODAY, BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
- A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY-59 UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
HIGHWAY-59 AND WOODBURY COUNTY FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THE
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS LATE THIS
MORNING ALONG I-29. HAVE CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY FOR
THIS REASON. HOWEVER, HAVE ALSO EXTENDED PART OF THE BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY-59 WHILE ISSUING A NEW
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY-59 AND
WOODBURY COUNTY. THESE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS
EVENING. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE IMPACTS COULD AFFECT THE EVENING COMMUTE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
TODAY: LIGHT SNOW LINGERS MOSTLY EAST OF I-29 THIS MORNING AS
YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION TO THE EAST. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
IOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT LATE THIS
MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY-NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE DAY TODAY, WHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY TURNS OUR WINDS SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MARCH 5TH, IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS WILL BE A BIT COOL
THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
THANKS TO SOME WEAK WAA, IN THE 40S. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN LOW STAYS TO OUR SOUTH, BUT A
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700-650 MB LAYER PUSHES NORTH INTO
OUR REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SATURATED AIR MASS WITH
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE THE 700-650 MB LAYER. ALL THIS
COMBINES TO CREATE WHAT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A BANDED SNOW
EVENT BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES
PRECIPITATION TYPE AT ONSET WILL BE LIGHT RAIN THAT TRANSITIONS
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW LOOKS
TO FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90, WITH THE HEAVIEST PART OF THE
BAND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AREAS NORTH
OF I-90 MAY STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW, BUT THE GRADIENT DROPS
OFF QUICKLY. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE LOCATION OF THE BAND. STILL, EXPECT AT
LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF FRESH SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS
MENTIONED, THERE IS A TIGHT GRADIENT FOR WHERE THE SNOW WILL
FALL. BETWEEN I-90 AND THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, LREF INDICATES
THERE IS A 30-80% PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH OR MORE SNOW, WITH
PARBOILED INCREASING AS YOU GO SOUTH. THOSE PROBABILITIES DROP
OFF QUICKLY WITH 2, AND 3 INCHES. AS FAR AS THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AND SOUTH, THERE IS AN 80-100% PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH OR
MORE NEW SNOW, A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF 2 INCHES, AND 50-70%
PROBABILITY OF 3 INCHES.
THANKFULLY WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIGHT, ONLY AROUND 10-15 MPH, SO
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW RATIOS FROM THE NBM LOOKED A BIT LOW, SO
AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS, BUMPED THOSE UP A BIT WITH A
BLEND OF NBM/NBM75TH. IN ADDITION, FELT THE NBM TEMPERATURES WERE
TOO WARM AND SO BUMPED THOSE DOWN A TOUCH WITH THE NBM/NBM10TH.
HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH A FEW 40S IN THE HURON/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AREA.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND: THINGS DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND WE BEGIN A
WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
AND HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
WITH 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS WE WATCH A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
YESTERDAY'S STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-29 ARE SEEING WEAKENING
WINDS AND CLEAR TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. EAST OF THE INTERSTATE, A
SMALL AREA OF MVFR STRATUS RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BUT
THIS WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS SAME AREA IS
SEEING STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-40 KNOTS. LOW
LEVEL MVFR CLOUDS IN THE FORM OF HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS PERSIST
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. HOWEVER,
THESE CLOUDS ARE PUSHING EASTWARDS AND WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF
SITES. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THOUGH BEFORE WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ072-
080-089.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ081-090.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ002-
013-021-031.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ003-014-
022-032.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...MEYERS
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...MEYERS
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