292
FXUS63 KFSD 071956
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
156 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE MILD AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
- DRIER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD LEAD
TO SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MOSTLY NORTH
OF I-90.
- OUR NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES (40%-70%) LIKELY RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND AS A WELL AGREED UPON SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS.
HOWEVER, THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS RETURN! TAKING A LOOK
ACROSS THE AREA, MOST OF THE LINGERING SNOW HAS EITHER DISSIPATED OR
PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST LEAVING BEHIND A WIDE SWATH 2-4 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF 5+ ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. WITH
THIS BEING A WETTER SNOW, WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME OF THE SNOW ON OUR
NORTHERN FRINGES RECEDE A BIT AS A HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES PROMOTE MELTING. FROM HERE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH THE MORE MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
OUR SNOW-LESS AREAS NORTH OF I-90. LOOKING INTO TONIGHT, MORE CLEAR
AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE AHEAD AS A SURFACE HIGHS SLIDES JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF US ACROSS NEBRASKA. AS LIGHTER WINDS RETURN, OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: HEADING INTO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, AN ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES ALOFT AS A FEW QUICK SHORTWAVES PUSH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THE WAVES, MULTIPLE PUSHES OF WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) ALOFT
ALONG WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP OUR
WARMING TREND CONTINUE AND MELT OUR REMAINING SNOW PACK. OUR
TEMPERATURES WILL ECHO THIS SENTIMENT AS HIGHS LIKELY INCREASE FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY TO THE 50S TO MID 60S BY SUNDAY.
MONDAY WILL FEEL LATE-SPRING LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S EXPECTED. WITH THAT BEING SAID, COULD SEE A FEW AREAS OVER
PERFORM TEMPERATURE-WISE GIVEN THE SET UP. WITH SEVERAL NBM MEMBERS
CONTINUING TO SHOW MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE (50%-70%) IN SOME
AREAS REACHING THE 70 DEGREE OR GREATER MARK, DECIDED TO NUDGE UP
OUR HIGHS A TOUCH FROM THE NBM MOSTLY ALONG OUR RIVER VALLEYS.
SHIFTING GEARS TO FIRE WEATHER, DRIER AIR ALONG WITH PERIODIC
BREEZINESS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MOSTLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE STRONGEST WIND
SPEEDS AND DRIEST CONDITIONS LIKELY BEING CO-LOCATED IN OUR NORTHERN
TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES, WE'LL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS AT TIMES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY ONWARDS: LOOKING INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK, A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING A STRONGER PUSH OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) ALOFT. WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY DECREASE OUR
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, WE'LL QUICKLY RECOVER BY WEDNESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN BUILDING RIDGE AND THUS MORE WAA. FROM HERE,
ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGHS INCREASE
FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 50S BY WEDNESDAY TO THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S ON
FRIDAY. OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS A
WELL-AGREED UPON UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THERE IS STILL
SEVERAL LINGERING QUESTIONS, SIGNALS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A STRONGER
SYSTEM OVERALL WITH BOTH PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER, NAILING DOWN THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHERE EVERYTHING
SETS UP WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE TIMING, INTENSITY, AND THERMAL
DIFFERENCES AMONG 07.12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
A MIX OF MVFR & IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION
TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TAKING A LOOK AT SATELLITE
IMAGERY, AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH LOW HANGING STRATUS
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE FOCUS BEING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IA AND PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WHILE SPOTTY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SHOULD SEE
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BEFORE 21Z. LASTLY,
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK THROUGHOUT THE
DAY BEFORE BECOMING INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY TO END
THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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