681
FXUS63 KFSD 080948
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
348 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WITHOUT LINGERING OR RECENTLY MELTED SNOW COVER. HIGHS COULD
APPROACH RECORD LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
- SNOW-FREE AREAS NORTH OF I-90 WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK. WHILE SPECIFIC
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, WILL BE MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY, AND POSSIBLY SNOW WITH INCREASING
WIND FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
TODAY-MONDAY: SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED
LINGERING SNOW COVER FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90, WITH
PATCHY OLD SNOW AROUND COTTONWOOD/JACKSON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST
MN AS WELL AS A THIN RIBBON IN PORTIONS OF BEADLE/KINGSBURY
COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL SD. REPORTS INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT FELL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD, WITH A NARROW BAND
EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE I-90/HIGHWAY 18 CORRIDORS.
THIS SNOW WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NORTH OF I-90 AND THE
COOLEST IN PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WEST OF YANKTON.
AN INCREASINGLY WARM AIR MASS AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MIXING IN
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO QUICKLY ERODE THE REMAINING SNOW.
GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND 50S NORTH OF I-90
TODAY, WITH READINGS 5-8 DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE GONE BY LATE MONDAY, THOUGH THE GROUND MAY
STILL BE COOL/WET ENOUGH TO HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, THOUGH IF PEAK MIXING IS REALIZED, A FEW HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD ENCROACH ON RECORD HIGHS WHICH
INCLUDE:
KHON: 73 IN 2012
KFSD: 72 IN 2012
KSUX: 74 IN 2014
BROOKINGS: 68 IN 2021
MARSHALL: 67 IN 2021
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF I-90 SUNDAY AND MONDAY WOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS 25-35% AND BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH. AREAS WHERE GRASSES HAVE
SUFFICIENTLY DRIED FROM ANY RECENT SNOW WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING FOR NEAR
CRITICAL LEVELS IF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
REALIZED.
FINALLY, ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT TODAY, COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS)
COULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, THOUGH HREF
PROBABILITY FOR VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 1-2 MILES IS ON THE LOW
SIDE AT 10-30%.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DRY
MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF COOLDOWN TUESDAY (HIGHS
IN THE 40S-LOWER 50S) BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF WARMER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW FIRE DANGER TO
EASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS. A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
WHICH BEGINS AS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY,
WILL SWING OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. SEVERAL MODELS POINT TO
A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH/CLOSED UPPER LOW TO VARYING DEGREES,
THOUGH WE ARE STILL SEEING A VERY BROAD SPECTRUM OF SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE STRENGTH, TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. CLUSTER
ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY EVENING SHOWS GEFS/GEPS MEMBERS ARE SPREAD
FAIRLY EVENLY ACROSS 4 CLUSTERS, LENDING LITTLE CONFIDENCE TOWARD
ONE SOLUTION OR ANOTHER FROM THOSE ENSEMBLES. IN CONTRAST, 2 OF
THE CLUSTERS WHICH ARE DOMINATED BY ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
GENERALLY SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH BY FRIDAY EVENING, ALLOWING SOME
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY TO BUILD AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MN AND EASTERN SD. NBM PROBABILITY OF THUNDER IS ON THE LOW SIDE
GIVEN WHAT IS SEEN IN THE LATEST ENSEMBLES, SO ADDED A MENTION OF
THUNDER TO AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-29 FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BEYOND THIS CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, THE WRAPPED UP SYSTEM WILL
EVENTUALLY HAVE COLDER AIR DRAWN INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK. TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS COLDER AIR AND ANY
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, THOSE
WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT WEEKEND WILL WANT TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK, AS THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS WHICH WOULD IMPACT TRAVEL,
ESPECIALLY WHERE COINCIDENT WITH SNOWFALL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH THE
SNOWMELT THIS AFTERNOON BUT PRETTY MINIMAL SIGNAL IN THE
GUIDANCE FOR THIS CURRENTLY. OTHERWISE, WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...KALIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page