028
FXUS63 KFSD 090428
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1028 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WITHOUT LINGERING OR RECENTLY MELTED SNOW COVER.
HIGHS COULD APPROACH RECORD LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
- SNOW-FREE AREAS NORTH OF I-90 WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES (50%-80%) RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK. WHILE
SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, WILL CONTINUE MONITORING
FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS, SNOW, AND INCREASING WINDS
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A BEAUTIFUL DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS
THE AREA, CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE
WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR. WITH THESE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND A HIGHER SUN ANGLE, EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS TO OUR SNOW PACK THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A LOSS IN
DIURNAL HEATING LIMITS FURTHER REDUCTIONS. FROM HERE, THE FOCUS
TURNS TO FIRE WEATHER AS THE COMBINATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS LEADS TO SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ISOLATED
TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONS HIGHWAY-18 CORRIDOR, THE POTENTIAL SHOULD
ONLY LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LASTLY, AS
TEMPERATURES DECREASE INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S OVERNIGHT;
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY SLICK SPOTS AS MELTING SNOW REFREEZES SOUTH OF
I-90. WITH THIS IN MIND, MAKE SURE TO DRIVE WITH CARE SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY & MONDAY: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
(WAA) HELPS INCREASE OUR TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO +6 TO +8 AT 850 MB.
WITH A FAIRLY MIXING DAY AHEAD, EXPECT MUCH OF THIS WARM AND DRY AIR
TO MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE ALONG WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH. WITH THIS IN MIND, NOT ONLY WILL HIGHS
LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE DAY; BUT THESE
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRY FUEL AND LOW RH VALUES IN THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE WILL LEAD TO HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER NORTH OF I-
90 WITH THE FOCUS PRIMARILY BEING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY-14
CORRIDOR. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS DO FALL SHORT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS,
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM THE EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING SO MAKE SURE TO LIMIT ANY ACTIVITY
THAT COULD CREATE A SPARK!
BY MONDAY, ANOTHER PUSH OF WAA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM
FURTHER. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE, MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND, COULD SEE A FEW OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES (KFSD/KFSD/KSUX/KMHE) GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SETTING
RECORD HIGHS. HOWEVER, WITH COOL/WET GROUND STILL IN PLAY FROM OUR
NOW MELTED SNOW PACK; TEMPERATURES COULD BE IMPACTED SLIGHTLY BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY, THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH MOVING
FORWARD. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, DEEPER MIXING WILL USHER IN WARMER AND
DRIER AIR PROMOTING ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, WHILE RH VALUES
WILL BE SIMILAR (25-35 PERCENT); WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY (20-30 MPH). WITH THIS IN MIND, MORE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.
TUESDAY ONWARDS: LOOKING INTO THE REST OF THE NEW WEEK, A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING A STRONGER
PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) ALOFT. WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY
DECREASE OUR OVERALL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, WE'LL QUICKLY RECOVER
BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN BUILDING RIDGE AND THUS MORE
WAA. FROM HERE, ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY AS
HIGHS INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BY WEDNESDAY TO THE 60S
TO LOW 70S BY FRIDAY. OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AS A WELL-AGREED UPON UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THERE
ARE STILL SEVERAL LINGERING QUESTIONS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM, 08.12Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM WRAPPING UP AND
OCCLUDING BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING POTENTIALLY
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON THE FORWARD FLANK OF THE DRY
SLOT AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL/STRONG WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW. WHO GETS WHAT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM AND HOW QUICKLY COLD AIR CAN FILTER INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW. WITH BOTH OF THESE LINGERING QUESTIONS AND THE STRENGTH/TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE; ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO TALK
ABOUT ANY KEY DETAILS AT THIS TIME. LASTLY, MAKE SURE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST IF YOU HAVE ANY UPCOMING TRAVEL PLAN AS THE STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM COULD CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONE
POTENTIAL EXCEPTION IS AGAIN THE LOW END (<20%) POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT MAY VERY WELL MITIGATE THIS THREAT.
OTHERWISE, WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS SUNDAY, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20-25 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...KALIN
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