941
FXUS63 KFSD 101958
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
258 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF
I-90 AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.
- A STRONG SPRING STORM SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. MULTIPLE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE FORMS OF THUNDERSTORMS, HIGH WINDS, AND SNOW. CONTINUE TO
CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION.
- AS OF THIS TIME, THERE IS A 50-90% CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
IS THE SAME TIME PERIOD WHERE STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY (30-60%
CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 50 MPH) TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND
70S ARE LIKELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2025
FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN HOW HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
FALLEN TO 19-25% WHILE WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-
30 MPH. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 PM FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-90 AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG OR
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AT THE SAME
TIME, A SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) WILL BE DELIVERED BEHIND
THE FRONT. THIS WILL QUICKLY COOL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND
RESTRENGTHEN MIXING. GUSTS UP TO 20-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WILL WEAKEN BY TOMORROW MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE 20S TO LOW 30S OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY WILL BE A COOLER DAY, RELATIVELY SPEAKING, THANKS TO THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CAA. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AS SURFACE
RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO EITHER SIDE OF 0C. MIXING THIS TO THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS UP TO THE 40S TO LOW 50S ALONG HIGHWAY-20. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, KEEPING LOWS A
LITTLE WARMING, ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 60S AND 70S ON THURSDAY. DEW POINTS
LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURSDAY THOUGH. WITH THE
WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, THIS COULD LEAD TO LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
ACROSS THE AREA. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT (SPG) WILL
LEAD TO BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY POTENTIALLY RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION.
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK TO BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE GFS, EURO, AND CANADIAN REMAIN IN
GENERALLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
WAVE. THE ANTECEDENT ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE REMAINS QUITE
UNSTABLE WHERE A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP.
THE MODELS SUPPORT THIS AS THEY SHOW A SUB 980 MB LOW QUICKLY
DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY AND PUSHING NORTHEASTWARDS. ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE ALONG AND
INCOMING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE LARGE BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW FAR WEST
OR EAST IT WILL SET UP. THE GFS, EURO, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES VARY
IN HOW FAR WEST BETTER MOISTURE GETS. THE LATEST LREF PROBABILITIES
HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES PLACED ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. THIS
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE EURO EXTREME FORECAST INDEX (EFI) AS IT
SHOWS 50-70% OF ITS MEMBERS POINTING TO ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA VIA ITS CAPE-SHEAR PRODUCT. DESPITE
POTENTIAL BETTER MOISTURE REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA, SOME
INSTABILITY REMAINS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE ALOFT. THERE IS STILL SOME OVERLAP OF STRONGER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME, MAINLY OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. THUS,
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THIS SYSTEM BUT COULD SEE CHANCES
FOR THUNDER EXTEND BACK NORTHWESTWARD GIVEN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THAT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
GIVEN THE OVERLAP OR SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BUT THIS POTENTIAL
REMAINS CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME.
ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS
CONDITIONS QUICKLY TRANSITION TO WINTRY CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO QUICKLY OCCLUDE AS IT PUSHES NORTHEASTWARDS. THIS WILL SET
UP A TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT (TROWAL) AND POTENTIALLY BRING SNOW
WITH IT THANKS TO TEMPERATURES QUICKLY COOLING BEHIND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LREF PROBABILITIES SUPPORT
THIS AS THEY SHOW INCREASING PROBABILITIES (50-90% CHANCE) FOR 850
MB TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING.
THIS WILL ALSO BE THE SAME PERIOD OF TIME THAT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE AREA. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) SUPPORTS THIS AS
IT SHOWS A 30-60% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 50 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES LIE ALONG AND WEST
OF I-29. ANY FALLING SNOW ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR ONLY WHEN SNOW IS
FALLING AT THIS TIME. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS IN THIS
SYSTEM, PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. WHILE WHAT WAS
JUST DESCRIBED PAINTS A LOOK AS TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY POSSIBLE,
PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST AS THINGS CAN AND WILL
CHANGE HEADING INTO THE END OF THIS WEEK.
THINGS CALM DOWN ON SUNDAY AS WINDS WANE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING TO THE 30S AND 40S. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS, THERE
COULD BE REMAINING PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE
CALMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AS MIXING INCREASES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN. GUSTS UP TO 15
TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS IS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS, STRONGEST
NORTH OF I-90 AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN
THIS EVENING BEFORE RESTRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA AND TURNS THE WIND DIRECTION TO OUT OF THE NORTH.
GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KNOTS IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW WHILE TURNING
EASTERLY TO FINISH OUT THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2025
RED FLAG CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW
20S. EXPECTED RH VALUES TO CONTINUE TO LOWER AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ARE REACHED THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE BEEN A BIT
SLOW TO COME DOWN. THAT SAID, CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING FOR THE FULL
EXTENT OF MIXING TO BE REALIZED AND DO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
CONTINUE TO FALL A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO COME UP BUT HAVE STARTED TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATION AREAS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. DO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THE MIXED LAYER DEEPENS. THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-90 AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
THIS EVENING.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL COME ON THURSDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
RH VALUES FALL TO 25-40% ALONG AND WEST OF I-29. BREEZY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA AS GUSTS LOOK TO STRENGTHEN UP TO 25-30 MPH.
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GET AT THIS
TIME. DESPITE THE HUMIDITY CONCERNS, DRY FUELS WITH THE BREEZY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE DAY.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038>040-
052>059-063-064.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-097.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS
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