259
FXUS63 KFSD 180852
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
352 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG WITH COOLER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY BUT AMOUNTS
ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. FURTHER WARMING TO ABOVE
AVERAGE LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
REMAINING SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BEGIN THE DAY TODAY.
SHOULD SEE ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN COME TO AN END AROUND DAY BREAK AS
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC ASCENT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THOUGH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL
LEAVE A SOMEWHAT TYPICAL MID APRIL DAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER,
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS, AND PERHAPS ANOTHER LOW CHANCE (<15% CHANCE)
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
WARM TO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH COULD BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER AND THE WEAK COLD ADVECTIVE REGIME IN PLACE. DESPITE
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY, DEW POINTS WILL BE FALLING
TO THE 20S AND 30S, RESULTING IN LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN TO 30-
40%. DESPITE RECENT GREENING, THE LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BREEZY
WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOSEN
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SURFACE HIGH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE A MUCH NICER DAY WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH IN CONTROL. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALOFT
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARDS. WITH SURFACE
WINDS TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER, ONLY FALLING DOWN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
NORTHEASTWARDS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN NO
INSTABILITY BEING PRESENT, AND THUS NO CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. THAT SAID, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AS
MOISTURE GETS WRAPPED AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. ENSEMBLES
STILL SHOW SOME VARIABILITY IN HOW FAR WEST PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND. IN GENERAL, THEY SHOW A BROAD 30-80%
CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN, HIGHEST EAST OF I-
29. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE SPREAD FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AS THE LREF SHOWS A LARGE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
TOUGH TO SAY WHICH DIRECTION THE SYSTEM WILL SWING BUT WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON TRENDS. OUTSIDE OF RAIN, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE 30S.
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
BUT OTHERWISE, MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH HIGHS WARMING
TO THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
THOUGH AS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SAME CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE WAVE LOOKS TO BE A BIT SLOW EXITING THE
REGION. ENSEMBLES ARE LESS EXCITED FOR THIS CHANCE FOR RAIN THOUGH
AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RESIDE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA AS THEY SHOW ONLY A BROAD 40-60% CHANCE FOR
EXCEEDING A MERE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY BUT THE STORM POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN HOW
MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.
THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW DUE TO VARIANCE IN
THE PATTERN AT THIS TIME FRAME. ASIDE FROM RAIN CHANCES,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
LATEST RADAR SHOWS THAT ALL RAIN HAS EXITED THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME, SATELLITE SHOWS A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA, ALL OF WHICH ARE SITTING AT VFR LEVELS. THERE ARE ALSO TWO
AREAS FOR RAIN THAT ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FIRST
AREA IS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL PUSH INTO LOCATIONS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER OVER THE COMING HOURS. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS
LOOKS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGHWAY-20
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD INTO ADJACENT AREAS IN NORTHWEST IOWA. A STRAY
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE IN THESE SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN A TAF AT THIS TIME. SHOULD SEE THESE AREAS OF RAIN
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. CEILINGS LOOK TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
EAST OF I-29 FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. CURRENTLY THINKING THE
LOWER CEILINGS WILL STAY EAST OF KSUX BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE BY
TOMORROW EVENING TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...MEYERS
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