996
FXUS63 KFSD 021904
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
204 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
- PATCHY AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH THE GREATEST RISK ALONG
AND EAST OF I-29. MAKE SURE TO COVER ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION
AND/OR BRING IN ANY POTTED PLANTS.
- THE WARM AND MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES (<30%) FOR RAIN RETURNING AROUND
MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A MILD AND BREEZY DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK
ACROSS THE AREA, MOST AREAS ARE NOW UP TO THE LOW TO UPPER 50S AS OF
1 PM WITH A SCATTERED DIURNAL "CU" FIELD DEVELOPING MOSTLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS CENTRAL SD. THIS IS DIRECTLY IN
RESPONSE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY (300 J/KG OR LESS) ABOVE THE
MIXING LAYER AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. WHILE WE COULD SEE
A FEW SPRINKLES DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, SHOULD SEE MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARDS WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONS
WAVE THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS. FROM HERE, EXPECT OUR
BREEZY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHTER
WINDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARDS 33-35 DEGREES OVERNIGHT COULD
LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FROST MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-
29. WITH THIS IN MIND, MAKE SURE TO COVER ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION
AND/OR BRING IN ANY POTTED PLANTS!
REST OF THE WEEKEND: LOOKING INTO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, MORE WARM
AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE IN STORED AS AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN SETS
UP ALOFT BY SATURDAY. WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, EXPECT THIS TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT
BAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND
WARMER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON SATURDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY. LASTLY, COULD SEE SOME PERIODIC BREEZINESS ON SUNDAY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-29 AS THE SPG TIGHTENS LEADING TO WIND
GUST BETWEEN 25-35 MPH AT TIMES.
NEXT WEEK: HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK, WILL START TO SEE THE OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN BREAK DOWN AND TRANSITION TO MORE OF A REX BLOCKING
PATTERN BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WHILE THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PREVIOUSLY
OUTLINED AREAS, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL KEEP JUST ENOUGH OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING TO KEEP MOST OF THE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST ACCORDING TO 02.12Z DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. WITH THIS IN MIND, EXPECT MORE DRY AND WARM CONDITION FOR
THE DURATION OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S.
LASTLY, GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS; EXPECT SOME
VERY BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS TO START THE MONTH OF MAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS AREAS OF STRATUS CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHWARDS. WHILE WE COULD SEE A SCATTERED CU FIELD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON, MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
A BIT BREEZY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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