822  
FXUS63 KFSD 022317  
AFDFSD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD  
617 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- PATCHY AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES  
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH THE GREATEST RISK ALONG  
AND EAST OF I-29. MAKE SURE TO COVER ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION  
AND/OR BRING IN ANY POTTED PLANTS.  
 
- THE WARM AND MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT  
WEEK WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES (<30%) FOR RAIN RETURNING AROUND  
MIDWEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025  
 
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A MILD AND BREEZY DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK  
ACROSS THE AREA, MOST AREAS ARE NOW UP TO THE LOW TO UPPER 50S AS OF  
1 PM WITH A SCATTERED DIURNAL "CU" FIELD DEVELOPING MOSTLY ALONG THE  
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS CENTRAL SD. THIS IS DIRECTLY IN  
RESPONSE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY (300 J/KG OR LESS) ABOVE THE  
MIXING LAYER AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. WHILE WE COULD SEE  
A FEW SPRINKLES DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND WEST OF  
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, SHOULD SEE MOST OF THIS  
ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARDS WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONS  
WAVE THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS. FROM HERE, EXPECT OUR  
BREEZY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE  
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK  
SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHTER  
WINDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TOWARDS 33-35 DEGREES OVERNIGHT COULD  
LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FROST MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-  
29. WITH THIS IN MIND, MAKE SURE TO COVER ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION  
AND/OR BRING IN ANY POTTED PLANTS!  
 
REST OF THE WEEKEND: LOOKING INTO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, MORE WARM  
AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE IN STORED AS AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN SETS  
UP ALOFT BY SATURDAY. WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS, EXPECT THIS TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT  
BAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY TO  
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND  
WARMER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM  
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON SATURDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON  
SUNDAY/MONDAY. LASTLY, COULD SEE SOME PERIODIC BREEZINESS ON SUNDAY  
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-29 AS THE SPG TIGHTENS LEADING TO WIND  
GUST BETWEEN 25-35 MPH AT TIMES.  
 
NEXT WEEK: HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK, WILL START TO SEE THE OMEGA  
BLOCKING PATTERN BREAK DOWN AND TRANSITION TO MORE OF A REX BLOCKING  
PATTERN BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING  
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
WHILE THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PREVIOUSLY  
OUTLINED AREAS, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL KEEP JUST ENOUGH OF THE UPPER-  
LEVEL RIDGING TO KEEP MOST OF THE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST ACCORDING TO 02.12Z DETERMINISTIC  
GUIDANCE. WITH THIS IN MIND, EXPECT MORE DRY AND WARM CONDITION FOR  
THE DURATION OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S.  
LASTLY, GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS; EXPECT SOME  
VERY BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS TO START THE MONTH OF MAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025  
 
VFR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME  
PATCHY FOG BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN LIGHT AND MOISTURE  
LINGERS. MOST OF THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE EAST OF I-29, BUT  
EVEN VALLEY/RIVER FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST.  
 
OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH ONLY A LOW  
POTENTIAL OF DIURNAL CU IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...05  
AVIATION...DUX  
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