766
FXUS63 KFSD 031904
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
204 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WITH DAILY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S. A FEW AREAS
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
ONLY LOW CHANCES (<30%) FOR RAIN RETURNING AROUND MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
A BEAUTIFUL DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MANY
OBSERVATION SITES REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
AS OF 12 PM. AS WE CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO PEAK SOMEWHERE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE DAY WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WHILE THIS COULD LEAD TO DRIER RH
VALUES IN THE 24-28 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, THE COMBINATION OF
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH GREENER FUELS DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP OUR FIRE DANGER LOW FOR A WHILE. FROM HERE,
EXPECT THE QUIETER CONDITIONS TO CARRY OVER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE NIGHT.
BY SUNDAY, THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN FULLY SETS UP A DEEPENING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY WRAPS
UP INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW (ULL) OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH OUR
AREA, CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SYSTEM AND ANOTHER
ULL CENTER OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY; EXPECT THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGING TO STAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH
THIS IN MIND AND THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS, EXPECT MORE WARM AND MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS EXPECTED TO LOW TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THURSDAY
THEN UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE ULL NOW OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION CONTINUES TO ROTATE EASTWARDS INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WE'LL START TO SEE THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A REX BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SYSTEM ROTATES JUST TO OUR SOUTH, COULD
SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SD. HOWEVER, WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE ACCORDING TO SOUNDINGS AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST; NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION. NONETHELESS,
CAN'T RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER IF THINGS CAN DEVELOP
WITH ABOUT 200 J/KG OF INSTABILITY SITTING ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER.
FROM HERE, COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (10%-20%) BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AS A
PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES NORTHWARDS AROUND THE MID-LEVEL LOW.
HOWEVER, THE CHANCES DON'T LOOK AS GOOD GIVEN THE WEAKER FLOW
PATTERN AND LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. EITHER WAY, ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ONLY SHOWING 20%-30% PROBABILITIES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. LASTLY, GIVEN THE MORE RIDGY PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND; EXPECT THE
WARM AND QUIET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS TAF PERIOD.
TAKING A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY, A PICTURE PERFECT DAY
CONTINUES WITH CLEAR SKIES AND AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO CARRY OVER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. FROM HERE, EXPECT SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY
WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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