726
FXUS63 KFSD 050309
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1009 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH
MOSTLY TOWARDS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH ONLY
LOW (20-40%) CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN AROUND MIDWEEK.
- SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK AHEAD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S BUT WARMING TO THE 80S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
TO THE 70S WHILE WINDS REMAIN MARGINALLY BREEZY TO LIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. STILL SEEING SOME ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WEST OF I-29 WITH
HUMIDITY VALUES REACHING NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND
WINDS NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WITH RECENT GREENING ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL PERTAIN TO AREAS THAT HAVE NOT
GREENED UP JUST YET. THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CEASE THIS
EVENING AS WINDS WEAKEN AND TEMPERATURES COOL. HOWEVER, LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE 40S.
THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS ALOFT FOR MONDAY THOUGH THIS
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WARMING TO THE 70S TO UP TO ABOUT 80F. WINDS LOOK TO BE A TOUCH
WEAKER THOUGH GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 25 MPH IS EXPECTED WEST OF I-29.
LIKE WHAT OCCURRED ON SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS
WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REACH CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE RECENT GREENING IN PLACE, ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER WILL PREVAIL IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE NOT GREENED UP JUST
YET. THOUGH OUR AREA WILL BE DRY, SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LOCAL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN, THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOVING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AND AVOID OUR AREA ENTIRELY. THUS, MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET
WITH LOWS FALLING DOWN TO THE 40S.
THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF THE WEEK AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A REX BLOCK. WHILE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, THERE COULD BE A FEW INSTANCES
WHERE LIGHT RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN LOOK TO
COME TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS LOW (20-40% CHANCE). THIS IS DUE TO THE WESTERN
UPPER LOW IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OMEGA BLOCK THAT WILL DRIFT
EASTWARDS INTO THE PLAINS. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS LOW
RESIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE CAN GET WRAPPED AROUND TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. AT
THIS TIME, THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
SO THIS COULD TREND TO BEING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A THE SAME TIME,
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MINOR INSTABILITY LESS THAN 300 J/KG. THIS
COULD LEAD TO VERY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IF THE INSTABILITY CAN BE
REALIZED. GIVEN HOW SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 10 KNOTS OR
LESS, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD OF TIME WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOWS FALLING TO THE 40S AND 50S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGING SLIDING EASTWARDS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE HARD TO COME BY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FURTHER WARM THOUGH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. WINDS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE SO NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE A NICE ONE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR SKIES AND A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO VARIABLE DIRECTION WIND IS
EXPECTED WELL THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON WINDS MAY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY IN SPEED WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH TOWARDS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...DUX
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