982
FXUS63 KFSD 060314
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1014 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ALTHOUGH GRASSES ARE GREENING UP, LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER CONTINUES WEST OF I-29 TODAY WHERE DRY GRASSES ARE
STILL MORE PREVALENT AND GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 25-30 MPH.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH ONLY
LOW (<20%) CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN AROUND MIDWEEK.
- SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK AHEAD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S BUT WARMING TO THE 80S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
TO THE 70S WHILE WINDS REMAIN MARGINALLY BREEZY TO LIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. STILL SEEING SOME ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WEST OF I-29 WITH
HUMIDITY VALUES REACHING NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND
WINDS NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WITH RECENT GREENING ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL PERTAIN TO AREAS THAT HAVE NOT
GREENED UP JUST YET. THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CEASE THIS
EVENING AS WINDS WEAKEN AND TEMPERATURES COOL. HOWEVER, LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH
WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE
40S.
THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A REX BLOCK FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DESSERT SOUTHWEST MEANDERING ITS WAY EAST,
SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE THE LOW CAN WRAP AROUND
ITS NORTH SIDE. THIS POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK LESS LIKELY WITH
TODAY'S 12Z DATA. THE CANADIAN AND EURO ENSEMBLES SHOW A 0-30%
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF I-90. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE IS AN OUTLIER AS IT SHOWS MUCH HIGHER PROBABILITIES UP TO A
40-70% CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. GIVEN HOW IT IS THE
OUTLIER, HAVE CONTINUED WITH MODEL BLENDED POPS THAT NOW HAVE POPS
BELOW 20% FOR ALL AREAS SOUTH OF I-90. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL WARM TO THE 70S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT AT 80F. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY. A
WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG IT. HOWEVER, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY SO THINK RAIN MAY BE A BIT HARD TO COME BY. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL WARM A BIT MORE TO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EASTWARDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND, CONTINUING THE STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WHILE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR.
MARGINALLY BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR SATURDAY BEFORE WINDS
STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
(SPG). GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 30-35 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) SUPPORTS THIS AS IT SHOWS A 30-60%
CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 30 MPH. THIS COULD PUT A LITTLE BIT OF A
DAMPER ON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FOR MOTHER'S DAY, BUT SHOULD STILL BE A
DECENT DAY NONETHELESS.
RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER, THIS
WAVE IS ABOUT A WEEK OUT SO A LOT CAN CHANGE. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED OVER THE COMING WEEK BUT THIS WAVE COULD BRING RENEWED
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE AREA. OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TAKING A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. LASTLY, LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-29
OVERNIGHT TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...05
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