772
FXUS63 KFSD 062000
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
- THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 70S INTO THE LOWER 80S.
- VERY WARM AND BREEZY SUNDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DAILY
HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT FROM ROUGHLY GREGORY TO HURON
WITH TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND
TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER BEING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS
WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO PICK UP A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG HUDSON BAY HIGH WITH NORTHEAST BREEZES UP
TO 25 MPH.
12Z GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH KS/OK SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF/GEM. WILL FAVOR THE DRIER
SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME GIVEN UNFAVORABLE NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS AND QUESTIONS ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. FOR
NOW, WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, CUT-OFF LOW ENERGY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD, WHILE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. CLOSER TO
HOME, 500 HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE CONTINUED
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN ENSEMBLES SHOW INCREASING PROBABILITIES
(50-60 PERCENT) OF EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE AXIS MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE FURTHER. GIVEN THIS PATTERN,
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER ECMWF COMPARED TO THE GFS, GIVING DAILY
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME AREAS FLIRTING WITH THE 90
DEGREE MARK BY NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE WITH NO REAL MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IN THE SEVEN-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS TAF AIRFIELDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT OVERALL SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE. THROUGH 07.18Z, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY
PERIODS OF CIRRUS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS,
BUT ANY DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 8-10 KFT LAYER.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT (10 KTS OR LESS), MAINLY FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST, BUT THERE COULD ALSO BE PROLONGED PERIODS WITH
A VARIABLE DIRECTION. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD, COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS AT KHON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROGERS
AVIATION...ROGERS
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