351
FXUS63 KFSD 070757
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
257 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY COOLER (ABOUT 5 DEGREES) TODAY WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. IF SHOWERS DEVELOP, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT - LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
- THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY CONTINUES TO BE WARM AND DRY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S.
- VERY WARM AND BREEZY SUNDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DAILY
HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
CURRENTS THROUGH TONIGHT: MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTH THIS MORNING FROM LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD THROUGH 3 AM, STILL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S,
ALTHOUGH WE'LL COOL INTO THE 50S BY DAYBREAK.
REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. COULD SEE
SOME HIGH BASED SPRINKLES TOWARD THE US HWY 20 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK (LESS THAN 200 J/KG FROM MOST MODELS)
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE. THERE'S SOME WEAK VORTICITY AND WAA
ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AS WELL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER BELOW 7KFT, THINK PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE AND
THUS HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES 25% OR LESS. IF WE'RE ABLE TO SNEAK
OUT ANY PRECIPITATION, AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT - LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH. CHANCES FOR MORE THAN A TENTH ARE VERY LOW (LESS THAN 20%),
WITH CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP MAXING OUT AROUND 65%.
ALTHOUGH WE'LL SEE MORE CLOUD COVER AROUND TODAY WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH, HAVE INCREASED HIGHS FROM PREVIOUS BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES - STILL IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. BREEZIER TODAY
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THURSDAY: MESSIER FLOW FOR THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
BECOMES CUT OFF IN THE MIDWEST. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH WARMER WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. NOT QUITE AS BREEZY
WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY. LOWS IN THE
40S.
FRIDAY-THE WEEKEND: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY - NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN
THE LACK OF MOISTURE. ALOFT, THE CUT OFF LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER TO
OUR SOUTHEAST. RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN. THIS
RESULTS IN CONTINUED DRY AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. HIGHS
IN THE 80S, ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY, ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITY OF HIGHS OVER 80 IS MODERATE TO HIGH (OVER 40%) FOR
ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. DRY AIR,
WARM TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO
AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DESPITE RECENT GREEN UP OF FUELS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY COULD GUST OVER 40 MPH, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: CUT OFF LOW WOBBLES BACK INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BACK TO THE WEST, MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS,
SENDING AT LEAST ONE SHORT WAVE INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW EJECTING MID WEEK. THIS COULD BRING SOME CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND STORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN MODEL VARIABILITY IN
TIMING/LOCATION.
MAIN IMPACTS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE THE CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, WARM
TEMPERATURES, AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN PLAY. LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TAKING A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY, HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM THIS EVENING.
WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, ANY DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY-20
MOSTLY JUST AFFECTING KSUX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. LASTLY, LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL LIKELY INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-25 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...05
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