831
FXUS63 KFSD 271748
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1248 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE COVERAGE IN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE DAY, BUT AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT (MAINLY LESS
THAN 0.25").
- VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF
I-90. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS OF 30- 40 MPH.
- PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS (20-50% CHANCE) REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE WEEKEND WITH MANY LOCATIONS
EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH QUIET CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY, RESULTING IN A MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN.
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER AS WELL AS WEAK FORCING SHOULD BE
THE MAIN DRIVING MECHANISM WITH LOW LEVELS NOT AS DRY WHICH WILL
ALLOW MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. THIS BROAD LIFT
AND SATURATION WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF I-29 BY ABOUT 6 PM AND THEN
MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY THAT COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WITH
THE FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 6 KFT SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND POTENTIALLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30-40 MPH. ONE TRICKIER THING
TO FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SPIN UP TORNADO UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF
FUNNELS AND POSSIBLY A QUICK TOUCHDOWN. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS
WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS PRETTY LOW.
BY SUNSET WITH THE MAIN SATURATION AND LIFT SHIFTING EAST AND THE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DISSIPATING, WEAK WINDS AND A MOIST LOWER
LEVEL WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. RIGHT NOW THE
BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. CURRENTLY NOT
ANTICIPATING DENSE FOG, ALTHOUGH SOME VERY LOCALIZED DENSE FOG COULD
OCCUR.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, WEAK MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO TO THE AREA.
COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. CONTINUED COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY MID AND UPPER 60S.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE FINAL DAY DEALING WITH THIS SLOW MOVING AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. ISOLATED TO POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING WITH WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 70S.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
DRIER LOW TO MID LEVELS. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A WAVE DIVE SOUTH AND BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT THE OVERALL IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINOR.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A COMBINATION OF VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER 28.03Z FROM WEST
TO EAST. SHOWER CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, AND WITH THE RECENT RAIN
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. CURRENTLY FOG LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 DUE TO SHOWERS LINGERING IN OUR EASTERN
PORTIONS A BIT LONGER. HOWEVER, ONCE SHOWERS CONCLUDE, FOG COULD
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...AJP
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