772
FXUS63 KFSD 300339
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1039 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT INCREASES IN COVERAGE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES. SURFACE IMPACTS FROM SMOKE ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
- WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO PERHAPS SOME LOWER 90S THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, THEN MODERATE (40-70%) CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH DETAILS ARE FAR
FROM CERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR. THUNDER RISK
IS LOW WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG OF MUCAPE. SKIES HAVE
CLOUDED OVER THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 60S AND
LOWER 70S WITH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES. CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING, WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WILDFIRE SMOKE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS SMOKE DOES LOOK TO REMAIN
ALOFT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO NOT EXPECTING SURFACE IMPACTS.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME SURFACE SMOKE MAY MOVE INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, SO THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST.
DESPITE HAZY SKIES DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE, A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WAA WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE).
BREEZIER WINDS FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 20 MPH. LOWS
TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE 50S. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE DOES NOT HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WITH
IT.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING RIDGING ON SATURDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM WITH THIS WAVE; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LACK OF
MOISTURE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL WILDFIRE SMOKE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH SOME NEAR SURFACE SMOKE AROUND THE
REGION. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO THE SMOKE WILL
WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, RIDGING CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE
80S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 90S MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. PEAK
MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR BREEZY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30
MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: ATTENTION TURNS TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING TO THE EAST AND GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE MID/UPPER
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PERIODIC CHANCES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH SHORT WAVES TREKKING ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE LEFT NBM
AS IS GIVEN TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES IN THESE FEATURES. WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AS MULTIPLE MACHINE LEARNING RESOURCES ARE
HIGHLIGHTING AT LEAST LOW (25% OR LESS) RISKS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AGAIN, DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
OR TRAVEL PLANS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
EARLY TONIGHT, THOUGH SKIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HAZY AS
CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE PUSHES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY
EVENING.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...JM
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