723  
FXUS63 KFSD 081102  
AFDFSD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD  
602 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG  
MAINLY WEST OF I-29 TO START THE DAY. VISIBILITIES OF A MILE  
OR LESS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING.  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY RETURN FROM  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THE RISK FOR  
STRONGER STORMS IS LOW, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE.  
 
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO  
THE LATE WEEK WITH THE FOCUS BEING BETWEEN THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY. MIXED STORM MODES COULD BRING A VARIETY OF SEVERE  
WEATHER RISK, BUT SLOWER STORM MOTIONS MAY ALSO BRING A  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RISK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
TODAY & TONIGHT: A MOSTLY QUIET DAY AHEAD! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE  
AREA, WE'RE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY BREAK FREE FROM THE CLOUD COVER  
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARER CONDITIONS RETURNING NORTHWEST OF A WAGNER  
TO SIOUX FALLS TO TRACY, MN LINE. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM  
RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS, WE'RE ALREADY STARTING TO  
SEE SOME PATCHY AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOP ALONG THE U.S.  
HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS  
NOT EXPECT, VISIBILITIES OF A MILE OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY  
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SD THROUGH THE MID-MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND,  
MAKE SURE TO INCREASE THOSE FOLLOWING DISTANCE AND SLOW DOWN WHEN  
MAKING THOSE MORNING COMMUTES! FROM HERE, ANOTHER WARM AND QUIET DAY  
IS AHEAD AS HIGH PEAK IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT  
THE MOSTLY QUIETER CONDITIONS TO CARRY OVER INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS  
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE  
NIGHT. LASTLY, COULD SEE A FEW "POPCORN" SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS  
SOUTHCENTRAL SD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NOSE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET  
INTERACTS WITH SOME LINGERING PIECES OF VORTICITY. WHILE ANY  
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED, EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO  
DEVELOP BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: LOOKING INTO THE MIDWEEK, AN ACTIVE PATTERN  
RETURNS ALOFT AS WEAK RIDGING GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WESTERN  
CONUS. WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BY WEDNESDAY AND  
STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) ALOFT, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO  
TREND WARMER WITH HIGHS LIKELY PEAKING IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S. FROM  
HERE, THE FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A QUICK MID-  
LEVEL WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE AND INTERSECTS A WARM FRONT  
TRIGGERING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL  
AND SOUTHCENTRAL SD. WHILE THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ACCESS  
TO A DECENTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 1000-1800 J/KG OF INSTABILITY  
AND 25-35 KTS OF BULK SHEAR, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GROWING INHIBITION  
AT THE SURFACE DUE TO THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH THIS IN  
MIND, UNLESS THIS ACTIVITY CAN MANAGE TO STAY ELEVATED; EXPECT  
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS TO STRUGGLE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS  
THEY PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARDS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  
 
BY THURSDAY, COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY PERSIST  
DURING THE DAY AS LITTLE PIECE OF VORTICITY INTERACT WITH A  
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO  
BE ON THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRENGTHENING  
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND LIFTS THROUGH OUR AREA.  
WHILE THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE  
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, THE HIGH CAPE/LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT  
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM; WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SEVERE RISK WITH STRONGER STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOP  
STRONG COLD POOLS. AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT, SLOWER STORM  
MOTIONS ALONG WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES WILL  
PROMOTE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RISK INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY, GIVEN  
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES; EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO  
SIT NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S  
DURING THE LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK.  
 
SATURDAY ONWARDS: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, LONG-RANGE  
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE IN TERMS OF THE LOCATION/TIMING OF  
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL PATTERN DOES FAVOR  
TROUGHING SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THIS IN MIND,  
COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION CHANCES (<20%) ON SATURDAY WITH  
MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS RETURNING THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT  
CONDITIONS TO TREND WARMER HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEK WITH  
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR TO LIFR VSBYS ARE  
EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD MOSTLY DUE TO FOG. TAKING A LOOK AT  
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO  
PROMOTE MVFR TO LIFR VSBYS THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS  
SOUTHEASTERN SD. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH  
DAYBREAK, EXPECT VSBYS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIBLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR  
MOST OF THE DAY TO END THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
 
   
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...05  
AVIATION...05  
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