291
FXUS63 KFSD 280501
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1201 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES UP TO 110 DEGREES. USE CAUTION TO PREVENT HEAT
ILLNESS TODAY.
- THERE IS A 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL SD AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL.
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES MONDAY GIVEN A COMBINATION OF AIR
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AND DEW POINTS
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
RISE ABOVE 104 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90.
EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
- ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
PEAKING IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
1930Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM
AROUND 100 TO 110 DEGREES. A COMBINATION OF AIR TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WILL ALLOW
DANGEROUS HEAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.
BARRING ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (SEE MORE BELOW),
EXPECT NIGHTTIME RECOVERY TO BE LIMITED WITH LOWS REMAINING
ELEVATED MAINLY IN THE 70S.
COMPLEX SETUP THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED BY THIS MORNING'S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEAST
SD, EASTERN ND, AND NORTHERN MN, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/FRONT IS
ROUGHLY ALIGNED NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL SD. THIS
WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING AS MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORT-WAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE OF 5000-6000 J/KG. GIVEN
WEAK NEAR SURFACE FORCING, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE NECESSARY
FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK THE CAP AFTER TODAY'S EXTREME
HEAT. AND BECAUSE OF THIS, CAMS ARE BREAKING OUT STORMS ANYWHERE
THERE IS A POCKET OF 500 HPA VORTICITY ADVECTION. STILL THINK
THE BEST AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
MN CLOSEST TO THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A GRADUAL WESTWARD EXPANSION OF STORMS INTO SD AFTER 7 PM.
ADMITTEDLY, THIS IDEA IS MUDDIED GREATLY BY THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES. IN ADDITION, THE HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE
AS FAR WEST AS CHAMBERLAIN/HURON, SO PULLED 20-40 POPS BACK TO
THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. WHILE INITIAL STORMS
WILL HAVE A LARGE HAIL THREAT UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE, THE
PRIMARY HAZARD SHOULD TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH AS
STORMS MERGE AND FORM LINEAR CLUSTERS. SPCS DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS
BEEN UPDATED TO FOCUS A LEVEL 3 OF 5 (ENHANCED) RISK MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL MN WITH THE LEVEL 2 OF 5 (SLIGHT) RISK EXPANDED
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO ENCOMPASS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
HEAT RISK TOMORROW WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY TONIGHT'S
CONVECTION AND THE LOCATION OF ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER,
CURRENT FORECAST STILL SUGGESTS AREAS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SEE
HEAT INDEX VALUES ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO WARNING CRITERIA (105+
DEGREES). AS SUCH, A NEW EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
NOON TO 8 PM MONDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WESSINGTON
SPRINGS TO SIOUX FALLS TO SPIRIT LAKE. AREAS TO THE NORTH ARE
COVERED BY A HEAT ADVISORY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE 12Z MODEL SUITE, SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WAVE IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THOSE THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. GIVEN EXTREME
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KTS, EXPECT STORMS TO
FIRE RAPIDLY AND QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. BEST
TIMING ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS FOR STORMS TO NEAR THE MO RIVER
EARLY EVENING AND THEN RACE ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY. SPCS DAY 2 OUTLOOK
SHOWS A LEVEL 2 OF 5 (SLIGHT) RISK FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERNMOST
COUNTIES IN OUR AREA. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED FOR AN EVENTUAL
INCREASE TO A LEVEL 3 OF 5 (ENHANCED) RISK. INITIAL STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, BUT THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL TRANSITION
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A MORE AGGRESSIVE COLD FRONT. SPCS DAY 3 OUTLOOK
SHOWS A LEVEL 1 OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY.
POST-FRONT, A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH DAILY HIGHS BY WED-FRI IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
CONVECTION, INCLUDING SOME STORMS PRODUCING GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS,
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST FROM KBKX TO KFSD AND EAST
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN AND NORTHWESTERN IA. THIS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, AND SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OF KSUX. IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WITH THE CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MID/LATE MORNING MONDAY. LLWS IS EXPECTED FOR KSUX FOR A FEW
HOURS OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE, RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EXACT
COVERAGE AND TIMING, BUT HAVE INCLUDED MENTION AT KHON AND KFSD
WHERE STORMS LOOK TO BE THE MOST LIKELY. OMITTED FROM KSUX FOR
NOW.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR SDZ050-
052>055-057>071.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR SDZ038>040-056.
MN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ098.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
081-089-090-097.
IA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ013-
014.
DISCUSSION...ROGERS
AVIATION...SG
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