637
FXUS63 KFSD 252310
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FALL-LIKE WEATHER PERSISTS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE FIRST ONE IS TONIGHT ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
(20- 40% CHANCE) AND THE SECOND ONE COMES ON WEDNESDAY
(30-50% CHANCE).
- THOUGH EARLY, THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A
SLIGHTLY COOLER, CLOUDY, AND DAMP WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
A WEAK CU FIELD REMAINS ACROSS PART OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION. WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING
TO THE 60S TO LOW 70S, TODAY IS ANOTHER FALL LIKE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA! THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS (20-40%) AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ENCOUNTERS
A WEAK LOW LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY. LATEST CAMS SHOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHICH IS SITTING
ACROSS PART OF THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCE A
STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE AND RUMBLE OF THUNDER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT AT OR BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE IN THE 40S TO UP TO ABOUT 50F ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SOME OF THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR RECORD COLD. LIKE THIS MORNING, COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG BODIES OF WATER.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR
SEASONABLE IN THE 70S AND 80S AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST, SETTING UP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN ITS
WAKE. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BUT COULD SEE LOW END CHANCES FOR RAIN
RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INVOKES
WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS
SOMEWHAT LOWER PER THE ENSEMBLES AS THEY ONLY SHOW A 30-50% CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO EXCEED A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE GFS ENSEMBLES
IS THE HIGHEST ENSEMBLE THOUGH AS IT SHOWS A 50-70% CHANCE FOR
EXCEEDING THE SAME AMOUNT OF RAIN.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL US ALOFT. THE RIDGING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONABLE IN THE 70S AND 80S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE ENSEMBLES RAINFALL PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE, NOW UP TO
A 40-60% CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN ON SATURDAY
AND SLOWLY WANING TO 20-40% ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH DETAILS CAN STILL
CHANGE, THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A CLOUDY,
SOMEWHAT COOLER, AND DAMP WEEKEND. HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY WARM TO THE
70S DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, BUT
IMPACTS TO KSUX LOOK UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME WITH RAIN CHANCES <15%
THERE. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT IMPACTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT, PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 5-10 KTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...SAMET
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