926
FXUS63 KFSD 011124
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
624 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES TO SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COUPLE RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE. MOST REMAIN DRY.
- DRY AND BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO LOW END
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS FIRE FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. ONE
PERIOD OF HIGHER CONCERN REMAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
NOW THROUGH TONIGHT: WE'RE STARTING OFF WITH CLOUDS AND MILD
CONDITIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. LOOKING SOUTHWEST, A WEAK
MID LEVEL WAVE AND WAA ARE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NE. THESE SHOULD EXPAND NORTH THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THESE
SHOWERS MAY BE IN OUR AREA, SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO 35% OR LESS.
THESE SHOULD MOVE EAST DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. MOST STAY DRY.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY MAY TEMPER WARMING
SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, STILL EXPECT TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW, WAA, AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S DEG C. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH A COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT - ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-29. GUSTS TODAY AGAIN BETWEEN 20 AND
30 MPH (STRONGEST WEST).
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST, AND THE
LLJ INCREASES. AGAIN, LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE SO LIMITED MENTION.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THURSDAY: ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY ON TAP FOR THURSDAY WITH MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD
BE DRY, WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST
DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
THE CAP AND LACK OF MOISTURE SO MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
WE'LL WARM MORE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW,
LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. WINDS DON'T LOOK QUITE AS
STRONG ON THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS MORE IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. WITH
STRONGEST WINDS COINCIDENT WITH HIGHEST RH, NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
FIRE CONCERNS - BUT LOCALIZED ISSUES ARE STILL POSSIBLE. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT ONLY DROP TO THE LOWER 60S WITH INCREASING WAA.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: RIDGING SLIDES EAST FRIDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR NORTH, WE'RE
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, DEEPENING TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO WESTERN
SD/NE WITH SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING SUIT. BOTH DAYS REMAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE, WITH FRIDAY THE WARMEST. FOLLOWED THE TREND FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT OF INCREASING HIGHS SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD - TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 2.5% OF VALUES COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST BUT
STILL IN THE 80S WITH THE SURFACE FRONT MOSTLY STATIONARY DRYING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY. BOTH RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST, LEADING TO INCREASING WINDS LATE WEEK;
FOLLOWED TRENDS OF INCREASING FROM THE NBM. RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES, BUT STRONGER WINDS THAN FORECAST MAY LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. USE CAUTION AS FUELS DRY AND
HARVEST ACTIVITIES INCREASE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: WAVE AND SURFACE LOW TREK THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME VARIANCE IN THE SOLUTIONS, WITH THE GFS BEING
THE QUICKEST AND FURTHEST NORTH, AND THE CANADIAN SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER, ALL CONTINUE TO FOCUS RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE VARIANCE, HAVE LEFT THE NBM
POPS AS IS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
0.1" OF RAIN ACROSS WESTERN SD AND INTO ND - SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH SOME MACHINE LEARNING
SHOWING LOWER END (LESS THAN 10%) RISK FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
TROUGH, AND CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
OFFSET IN SPACE AND TIME (LIMITING POTENTIAL). THIS WAVE QUICKLY
MOVES EAST, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY. LOW END
RAIN CHANCE LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE RETURN TO TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE
TO START NEXT WEEK - HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
BREEZY WINDS RETURN WITH CAA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. HAVE REMOVED THE PROB30 GROUP FROM KHON, AS
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AND VICINITY. SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ERRATIC WINDS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BUT
WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF ANY TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LLWS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER ENDS BY 15Z AS MIXING COMMENCES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS WEST OF I-29, WITH GUSTS
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS FURTHER EAST. GUSTS TAPER DOWN AFTER SUNSET.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...SG
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