771
FXUS63 KFSD 011921
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
221 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
- AFTER A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES TO LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN THEN MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS FIRE FUELS CONTINUE
TO DRY OUT. HOWEVER, MORE WIDESPREAD CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES (30%-50%) COULD RETURN BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
WHILE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE,
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
CURRENTS-THURSDAY: A WARM AND BREEZY DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK
ACROSS THE AREA, MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY AREAS SITTING IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AS OF 1
PM. WE'RE STARTING TO SEE SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS INCREASED MIXING ALONG WITH A
TIGHTENING SPG HAS LED TO SOME DRIER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS PRODUCING GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30
MPH. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SHOULD SEE SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN AFTER SUNSET.
FROM HERE, COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES TO LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN OVERNIGHT AS AN APPROACHING WAVE AND
WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ. HOWEVER,
THE SPRINKLES WON'T LIKELY LAST PAST DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARDS INTO MN. LOOKING INTO THE REST OF THE
THURSDAY, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS
LEADING TO ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO UPPER
80S. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE WARM AND DRY, WEAKER WIND SPEEDS
WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY.
THE WEEKEND ONWARDS: LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND, A PREDOMINANTLY RIDGY
PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS AS A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ROCKIES. WITH THE WARMER PART OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE, EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S EACH DAY. WITH THE WARMER CONDITIONS LIKELY EXTENDING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR BOTH RECORD
HIGHS AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHIFTING
GEARS HERE, CONDITIONS WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME BREEZY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS THE SPG TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE. WHILE GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, THE STRONGEST WIND
SPEEDS (30-40 MPH GUSTS) ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AS DEEPER MIXING
OCCURS WITH THE FOCUS BEING BETWEEN THE JAME RIVER VALLEY AND THE I-
29 CORRIDORS. AS A RESULT, THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE DANGER IS
ANTICIPATED. WITH THIS IN MIND, MAKE SURE TO USE CAUTION WHEN
HARVESTING OVER THE WEEKEND AS DRYING FUELS AND BREEZY WINDS WILL
PROMOTE RAPID FIRE SPREAD DURING THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, THE FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARDS OUR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (30%-50%) FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TAKING
A LOOK ALOFT, 01.12Z GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND THE BETTER
CHANCES NORTHWESTWARDS WITH THE BETTER FORCING/LIFT IN THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE THE BETTER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND THAT WAY AS WELL WITH AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE LIKELY SET UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SOUTHWESTERN SD AND
NORTHCENTRAL SD AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. NONETHELESS,
WE'RE NOT GOING TO BE COMPLETELY UNSCATHED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE SEVERE RISK CONTINUES TO LOOK
VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DISPLACED SHEAR, THE
CHANCES AREN'T ZERO SO WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THIS MOVING FORWARD. BY
SUNDAY, COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT. INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) AND A RETURN
TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN HELP TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO 70S ALONG/WEST OF I-29 AND 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF I-
29. LASTLY QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN HEADING INTO THE
NEW WEEK.
NEXT WEEK: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE QUIETER CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK AS A SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE COMES IN TO REPLACE THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER,
THE MAIN STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS
TUMBLE INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE PUSHES OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION (WAA) BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD HELP TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WE'LL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND THE 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TAKING A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY, A FEW LINGERING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. BESIDES A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND
THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF I-29, ANY AVIATION CONCERNS
SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM. OTHERWISE, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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