061
FXUS63 KFSD 120347
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1047 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 0.10 TO
0.25" OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
- BREEZIER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND ON SUNDAY WILL PROMOTE
SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.
- NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
NEW WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A COOL AND BREEZY DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK
ACROSS THE AREA, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF SPRINKLES CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY IS
MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE, EXPECT THE INTERMITTENT
PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT THE BREEZIER
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A TIGHT SPG KEEPS
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. LOOKING ALOFT, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE
COLORADO ROCKIES AND INTERACTS WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ (45-55KT). SHOULD
SEE THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARDS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE I-29 CORRIDOR BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH ABOUT 300 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. LASTLY, A WARMER NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP AS AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT HELPS OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY: LOOKING INTO SUNDAY, SLIGHTLY WARMER AND BREEZIER
CONDITIONS ARE AHEAD AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARDS
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE DAY.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RAIN CHANCES (40%-
60%). TO START THE DAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WARM FRONT FOR MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE
PUSHING OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF I-29 DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS
AS A COLD FRONT AND THE NOSE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET REPLACES THE
WARM FRONT. WHILE THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, MOSTLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. OVERALL
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
VARY BETWEEN A 0.10" AND 0.25" OF AN INCH WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY SETTING UP ALONG THE HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHWESTERN MN ACCORDING TO THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. LOOKING INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP CONTINUE THE
"WAVE TRAIN" WITH OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN BY TUESDAY. LASTLY, AN
INFLUX OF COLDER AIR (CAA) ALOFT ALONG WITH NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, CONTINUOUS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS OUR NEXT MID-LEVEL WAVE
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. PUSHES OF WAA WILL LIKELY HELP OUR
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR TO JUST ABOVE OUR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. LASTLY, ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING, HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE LATER HOURS OF THE TAFS. HEAVIER SHOWERS
COULD LEAD TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH DRY SUB
CLOUD LAYER LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING.
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION, WIND IS THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LLWS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LLJ
REMAINS VERY STRONG - 50-65 KNOTS. HAVE SEEN GUSTS OCCASIONALLY
DROP OUT EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT MOST LOCATIONS HAVE CONTINUED
TO SEE GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND EVENING SUNDAY, WHICH WILL
SHIFT WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD ALSO TAPER DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...SG
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