646
FXUS63 KFSD 122301
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
601 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
- PATCHY AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
(30%-50%) DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- AFTER A BRIEF RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE
WEEK, NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FROM THE
MIDWEEK ONWARDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A WARM AND BREEZY DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK
ACROSS THE AREA, MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A TIGHT SPG IN PLACE, SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE TO ON THE BREEZIER SIDE WITH MANY AREAS SEEING GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-35 MPH. WHILE NORMALLY THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS WOULD LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS; THIS TIME IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT BECAUSE THE
DEW POINTS ARE STILL ELEVATED FROM THIS MORNING'S SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT, WHILE FIRE DANGER IS STILL HIGH; THE
COMBINATION OF DAMPENED FUELS AND HIGHER RH VALUES WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. NONETHELESS,
CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION WHEN OPERATING FARMING EQUIPMENT AS A
FIRE ON CROPLAND WOULD BE ABLE TO SPREAD QUICKLY GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE, THE FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARDS OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING.
LOOKING ALOFT, A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARDS
ALONG A TYNDALL TO ALEXANDRA TO DE SMET LINE AS OF 1 PM. AS THIS
COLD FRONT PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE I-29 CORRIDOR AND INTERACTS WITH A
REMNANT LLJ BY LATE AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF I-29. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, A FEW
POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING. NONETHELESS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH
AN ADDITIONAL FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH POSSIBLE MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN MN. LASTLY, AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN TO REPLACE THE
DEPARTING SURFACE FRONT; WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AND HELP
TEMPERATURES DECREASE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE NIGHT. AS
A RESULT, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW PATCHY AREAS OF FROST
ESPECIALLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR. WITH THIS
IN MIND, MAKE SURE TO COVER OR BRING IN ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION
WHERE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY-THURSDAY: LOOKING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK, COOLER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
TEMPORARILY RETURN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOOKING ALOFT, MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOCKING US INTO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE'LL START TO SEE WEAK WAVES "RIDE THE
RIDGE" INTO OUR AREA STARTING ON MONDAY LEADING TO NEAR DAILY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30%-50%) THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE
BETTER OF WHICH LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKING
AT THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ABOVE 10KFT AND PWATS IN
1.00" TO 1.25" INCH RANGE; POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP.
NONETHELESS, SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM. TO
START, 12.12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DOESN'T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO VARIANCE
AMONG GUIDANCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF FEATURES. AS A RESULT,
AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN QUESTION AS WELL. CURRENT THINKING IS THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND SUPPORT WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
(WAA) REGIME FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT STARTING AS
EARLY AS LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER, WE WON'T GET THE BULK OF OUR
ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL THE COLUMN SATURATES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FROM
HERE, AS PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES; ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. LASTLY, WITH INCREASING
MID-LEVEL WAA AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS; EXPECT
TEMPERATURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE MIDWEEK AS HIGHS GO
FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S BY WEDNESDAY TO THE LOW TO UPPER 70S BY
THURSDAY.
THE WEEKEND: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES ALOFT BY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THIS COULD LEAD TO LINGERING SHOWERS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, QUIETER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. FROM HERE, ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER WAVE DIVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
AS LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES IN TERMS OF A SOLUTION. AS THIS
SYSTEM IS REPLACED BY MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, QUIETER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY. LASTLY, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO
THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND AS LINGERING COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) AND
THE RETURN OF NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PUT A CAP ON THINGS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT,
THEN WINDS TAPER OFF. GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT
3Z. THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS BUT IMPACTS FROM ANY
SHOWERS WILL BE MINIMAL.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...08
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