768
FXUS63 KFSD 160331
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1031 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA, NORTHWESTERN IOWA, AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
- CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
FOG RE-DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
- WARM AND BREEZY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT,
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOVING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE A THIRD
OF AN INCH OR LESS.
- TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROP TO MORE SEASONABLE
VALUES WITH HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
- THERE IS A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
SATURDAY BEFORE A DRIER PERIOD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
LOW STRATUS WITHIN A WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME HAS BEEN CAUGHT
UNDERNEATH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN
AN IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. 15.1930Z
SATELLITE IS FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. FARTHER NORTH,
OVERCAST SKIES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE EROSION OF CLOUDS FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTLY WINDS OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. IF WINDS ARE A BIT SLOWER
TO INCREASE, WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOW CLOUDS AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY
SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE ASSOCIATED 500 HPA CLOSED
LOW IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WY/CO/UT BORDER REGION BY 12Z
THURSDAY. AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, INCREASING THE CHANCES (20-30%) FOR A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AND INTO NORTHWEST MN.
LEE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY FROM THE PLAINS OF CO INTO CENTRAL SD. WITH THIS TROUGH,
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY,
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF I-29.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, BUT VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY PRECLUDES MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS, STRONG WARM-AIR
ADVECTION, AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO SOAR INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH PERHAPS A FEW SITES HITTING
THE 80 DEGREE MARK. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. TOTAL QPF WILL LIKELY BE A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS,
WITH THE HIGHEST FORECAST VALUES ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.
FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY, A BIT BREEZY AND COOLER IN THE WAKE
OF THURSDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS AT LEAST
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY, PEAKING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY, RESULTING IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
BUT PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE WILL BE EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING AT TIMES FROM 25 TO 35 MPH.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
12Z MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THEIR 500 HPA
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS SUNDAY AND BEYOND, LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE IDEA OF BROADER TROUGHING EXISTS, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. ENSEMBLES ALSO FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS
WITH LITTLE OVERALL PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING OVER NORTHWESTERN IOWA. SHOWERS
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF HIGHWAY 81 THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEGINNING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
MOVING EAST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS ARE DOWN TO LIFR TO
IFR IN THIS AREA AS WELL. TO THE SOUTH FOG IS PATCHY AND IN LOW
LAYING AREAS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY ABOUT 16.15Z FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER DAYBREAK. GUSTS OF 20-24 KTS WILL
INCREASE TO 25-29 KTS. LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE SITES.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ060>062-066-
067.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ039-040-
054>056.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ098.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
081-089-090-097.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012-
013.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJP
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