632
FXUS63 KFSD 310844
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
344 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LOW, A FEW HUNDREDTHS. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MID-MORNING AS LIGHT SNOW AND THEN POSSIBLY
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES INCREASE.
- BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY 4 PM CDT. WINDS
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HOWEVER SO DO WIND
CHILLS. PLEASE DRESS YOUR TRICK-OR-TREATERS FOR THE COLD
WEATHER.
- COOL SATURDAY, BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 50S
AND 60S BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
- FRIDAY WE COULD SEE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH AN UPPER CLOSED LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
ITS WAY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. A STRONG REGION OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION WORKS TO DYNAMICALLY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
AT THE SAME TIME LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, FURTHER WORKING TO REDUCE STABILITY AND RESULTING IN A
DEEP SATURATED LAYER THAT INCLUDES THE DGZ. MODEST 700-600 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING AROUND
MID MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE STRUGGLING TO DETERMINE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE
(PTYPE) AT ONSET. CONSIDERING WET-BULB ZERO IS JUST BELOW OR
IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW 900-1400 FT DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER, I BELIEVE SNOW IS THE MOST LIKELY PTYPE AT ONSET FOR THIS
AREA.
HIGHS FOR TODAY HAVE BEEN TRENDING COLDER, WHICH FURTHER INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AT ONSET. THROUGH THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ESPECIALLY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA
WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. RAIN MAY TRANSITION
BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION IS CONCERNED, QPF IS ON THE
LOW SIDE, ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. HOW FAST
TRANSITIONS BETWEEN PTYPE WILL LARGELY IMPACT THE SNOW TOTALS. FOR
AREAS ALONG I-90, A TENTH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE, ENOUGH TO DUST
THE GRASSY AREAS. AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 WILL NOT LIKELY SEE ANY SNOW
AND ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF RAIN. FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 14, A FEW TENTHS UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
FOR AREAS AT ELEVATION, AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, ISOLATED POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. ROAD SURFACES ARE STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SNOW STICKING, SO IMPACTS TO TRAVEL SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.
FOR THOSE OF YOU WITH TRICK-OR-TREATING ON YOUR MIND, YOU MAY WISH
TO ADD AN ADDITIONAL LAYER UNDER YOUR COSTUMES. BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FALLING TO
CHILLY LOW TO MID 30S BY 4 PM CDT. WINDS DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, WIND CHILLS WILL STEADILY DECLINE.
SO, PLEASE ENSURE YOUR LITTLE GHOSTS AND GOBLINS ARE DRESSED
APPROPRIATELY FOR COLD WEATHER. LOWS BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
COLD, IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS COOL IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND WAA
WILL BEGIN TO WARM THE MID-LEVELS. WAA CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY,
HELPING TO BOOST HIGHS FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MID 50S AND 60S. THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. SUNDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION, TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY WILL BE COOLER, IN THE 50S. IN THE MID-LEVELS A SERIES OF
WEAK RIDGES AND TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT.
BUT IN GENERAL HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO 60S THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. FRIDAY BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVE WAY TO MVFR
STRATUS, WHICH EXPANDS SOUTH FROM US HWY 14 TOWARD I-90 THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. STRATUS PREDOMINATELY STAYS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-90 THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRATUS COMES SHOWERS. EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN MOSTLY RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON
AND A MIX ONCE AGAIN SHOULD PRECIP LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
GREATEST CHANCES REMAIN ALONG THE US HWY 14 CORRIDOR (ESPECIALLY
TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN MN), SO MAINTAINED THE MENTION IN A PROB30
GROUP AT KHON FOR NOW. IF SNOW IS ABLE TO ACCUMULATE, EXPECT
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AND/OR ELEVATED SURFACES, WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED.
WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAYTIME; GUSTS TAPER DOWN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD, WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT KSUX MAY DROP TO MVFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD; HOWEVER, TOO LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT
NOW TO PUT AS PREVAILING. AT KFSD, CEILINGS MAY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN VFR/MVFR, AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE LATER HOURS OF
THE TAF.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...SG
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