254
FXUS63 KFSD 311151
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
651 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LOW, A FEW HUNDREDTHS. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MID-MORNING AS LIGHT SNOW AND THEN POSSIBLY
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES INCREASE.
- BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY 4 PM CDT. WINDS
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HOWEVER SO DO WIND
CHILLS. PLEASE DRESS YOUR TRICK-OR-TREATERS FOR THE COLD
WEATHER.
- COOL SATURDAY, BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 50S
AND 60S BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
- FRIDAY WE COULD SEE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH AN UPPER CLOSED LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
ITS WAY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. A STRONG REGION OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION WORKS TO DYNAMICALLY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
AT THE SAME TIME LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, FURTHER WORKING TO REDUCE STABILITY AND RESULTING IN A
DEEP SATURATED LAYER THAT INCLUDES THE DGZ. MODEST 700-600 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING AROUND
MID MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE STRUGGLING TO DETERMINE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE
(PTYPE) AT ONSET. CONSIDERING WET-BULB ZERO IS JUST BELOW OR
IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW 900-1400 FT DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER, I BELIEVE SNOW IS THE MOST LIKELY PTYPE AT ONSET FOR THIS
AREA.
HIGHS FOR TODAY HAVE BEEN TRENDING COLDER, WHICH FURTHER INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AT ONSET. THROUGH THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ESPECIALLY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA
WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. RAIN MAY TRANSITION
BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION IS CONCERNED, QPF IS ON THE
LOW SIDE, ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. HOW FAST
TRANSITIONS BETWEEN PTYPE WILL LARGELY IMPACT THE SNOW TOTALS. FOR
AREAS ALONG I-90, A TENTH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE, ENOUGH TO DUST
THE GRASSY AREAS. AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 WILL NOT LIKELY SEE ANY SNOW
AND ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF RAIN. FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 14, A FEW TENTHS UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
FOR AREAS AT ELEVATION, AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, ISOLATED POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. ROAD SURFACES ARE STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SNOW STICKING, SO IMPACTS TO TRAVEL SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.
FOR THOSE OF YOU WITH TRICK-OR-TREATING ON YOUR MIND, YOU MAY WISH
TO ADD AN ADDITIONAL LAYER UNDER YOUR COSTUMES. BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FALLING TO
CHILLY LOW TO MID 30S BY 4 PM CDT. WINDS DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, WIND CHILLS WILL STEADILY DECLINE.
SO, PLEASE ENSURE YOUR LITTLE GHOSTS AND GOBLINS ARE DRESSED
APPROPRIATELY FOR COLD WEATHER. LOWS BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
COLD, IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS COOL IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND WAA
WILL BEGIN TO WARM THE MID-LEVELS. WAA CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY,
HELPING TO BOOST HIGHS FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MID 50S AND 60S. THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. SUNDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION, TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY WILL BE COOLER, IN THE 50S. IN THE MID-LEVELS A SERIES OF
WEAK RIDGES AND TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT.
BUT IN GENERAL HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO 60S THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. FRIDAY BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
STRATUS IS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED,
LIGHT SNOW TO RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE AREAS NORTH OF I-90. AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON SNOW MAY TRANSITION TO ALL
RAIN. AREAS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN. VFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DEGRADE TO
MVFR AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KHON AND KFSD. SOME BRIEF IFR
IS ALSO POSSIBLE SHOULD ANY STRONGER SHOWERS FORM. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT KSUX UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. IT
IS POSSIBLE RAIN MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
IMPACTS TO RUNWAYS.
WINDS ARE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS. GUSTS PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AT 20-30 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS OF 35 KTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, BUT REMAIN LIGHTLY WINDY AROUND
10- 15 KTS OVERNIGHT.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...AJP
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