886
FXUS63 KFSD 311754
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1254 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. LIQUID
EQUIVALENT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LOW, A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MID-MORNING AS LIGHT SNOW
AND THEN POSSIBLY TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE.
- BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY 4 PM CDT. WINDS DECREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HOWEVER SO DO WIND CHILLS. PLEASE
DRESS YOUR TRICK-OR-TREATERS FOR THE COLD WEATHER.
- COOL SATURDAY, BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 50S
AND 60S BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
- FRIDAY WE COULD SEE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH AN UPPER CLOSED LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
ITS WAY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. A STRONG REGION OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION WORKS TO DYNAMICALLY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
AT THE SAME TIME LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, FURTHER WORKING TO REDUCE STABILITY AND RESULTING IN A
DEEP SATURATED LAYER THAT INCLUDES THE DGZ. MODEST 700-600 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING AROUND
MID MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE STRUGGLING TO DETERMINE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE
(PTYPE) AT ONSET. CONSIDERING WET-BULB ZERO IS JUST BELOW OR
IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW 900-1400 FT DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER, I BELIEVE SNOW IS THE MOST LIKELY PTYPE AT ONSET FOR THIS
AREA.
HIGHS FOR TODAY HAVE BEEN TRENDING COLDER, WHICH FURTHER INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE AT ONSET. THROUGH THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ESPECIALLY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA
WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. RAIN MAY TRANSITION
BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION IS CONCERNED, QPF IS ON THE
LOW SIDE, ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. HOW FAST
TRANSITIONS BETWEEN PTYPE WILL LARGELY IMPACT THE SNOW TOTALS. FOR
AREAS ALONG I-90, A TENTH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE, ENOUGH TO DUST
THE GRASSY AREAS. AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 WILL NOT LIKELY SEE ANY SNOW
AND ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF RAIN. FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 14, A FEW TENTHS UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
FOR AREAS AT ELEVATION, AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, ISOLATED POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. ROAD SURFACES ARE STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SNOW STICKING, SO IMPACTS TO TRAVEL SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.
FOR THOSE OF YOU WITH TRICK-OR-TREATING ON YOUR MIND, YOU MAY WISH
TO ADD AN ADDITIONAL LAYER UNDER YOUR COSTUMES. BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FALLING TO
CHILLY LOW TO MID 30S BY 4 PM CDT. WINDS DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, WIND CHILLS WILL STEADILY DECLINE.
SO, PLEASE ENSURE YOUR LITTLE GHOSTS AND GOBLINS ARE DRESSED
APPROPRIATELY FOR COLD WEATHER. LOWS BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
COLD, IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS COOL IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND WAA
WILL BEGIN TO WARM THE MID-LEVELS. WAA CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY,
HELPING TO BOOST HIGHS FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MID 50S AND 60S. THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. SUNDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION, TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY WILL BE COOLER, IN THE 50S. IN THE MID-LEVELS A SERIES OF
WEAK RIDGES AND TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT.
BUT IN GENERAL HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO 60S THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. FRIDAY BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, SPREADING
SOUTHWARD TO THE HIGHWAY-20 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KFT, THOUGH COULD DROP TO IFR OCCASIONALLY ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT FROM WEST
TO EAST TOMORROW MORNING AS CLOUDS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO KHON TO END THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SNOW MIXED
IN FROM TIME TO TIME. NO RUNWAY IMPACTS TO SNOW EXPECTED AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THERE WILL ALSO BE
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND/OR FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE
MID-MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME, SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE ABOVE FREEZING AS ANY DRIZZLE FALLS, BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST,
GUSTING UP TO 35 KTS, STRONGEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER. WINDS GRADUALLY LESSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...SAMET
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