594
FXUS63 KFSD 010344
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1044 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS, OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH SNOW, SLEET,
AND/OR GRAUPEL, WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT. IMPACTS FROM
ANY SNOWFALL ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WARMER GROUND
TEMPERATURES.
- LINGERING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. STILL, SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
- SEASONAL TO SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARDS AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN MOSTLY TO THE LOW-40S, SO THE CHANCE OF SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING
WILL BE ISOLATED TO LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE STAYED IN THE
UPPER-30S AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF COLD AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
TO PREVENT SNOWFLAKES THERE FROM MELTING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE SHOWERS TO HAVE
SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, SO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVIER RAIN AND EVEN SOME GRAUPEL/SLEET IN SPOTS. IT'S ALSO A
BREEZY DAY OUT THERE, WITH WIND GUSTS OCCASIONALLY OVER 30 MPH. THIS
IS LEADING TO WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW-TO-MID-30S, WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE INTO THIS EVENING EVEN AS WINDS GRADUALLY
LESSEN. SO MAKE TO SURE TO DRESS WARMLY FOR TRICK-OR-TREATING
TONIGHT AND AT LEAST HAVE SOME RAIN GEAR WITH YOU!
FOR TONIGHT, THE UPPER-LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AND
INTO EASTERN IOWA BY DAYBREAK. WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SHOWER
CHANCES OVERNIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND MOVING PRIMARILY OVER AREAS EAST OF I-29 AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL, THOUGH TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL STILL
LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING AS CLOUD COVER PREVENTS TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING TOO QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SOME SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE
PERIODS OF INCREASED UPWARD MOTION IN THE DGZ, WHICH COULD HELP
BRING DOWN MORE SNOWFLAKES TO THE GROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. STILL,
GROUND TEMPERATURES IN AREAS WHERE THIS HAPPENS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
FREEZING, SO IMPACTS LOOK UNLIKELY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF
FLURRIES AND DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. AT THIS POINT, ANY DRIZZLE LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOVE FREEZING, SO NOT EXPECTING FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS TEMPERATURES WILL GET
CLOSE TO FREEZING IN SPOTS.
LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO TOMORROW MORNING, LEADING TO CONTINUED
DRIZZLE/FLURRY CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF I-29 INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW, LEADING TO SOME SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY AT LEAST FOR
AREAS WEST OF I-29. THOSE EAST OF I-29 MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY
TO SEE THE SUN AGAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION,
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY AS HIGHS ONLY CLIMB TO THE LOW-TO-
MID-40S DUE TO THE CLOUDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT FAVORING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO OUR NORTH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. WITH
THAT SAID, ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES INDICATE A GREATER THAN 30%
CHANCE OF QPF GREATER THAN 0.01" SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, SO THIS SYSTEM CAN'T BE COMPLETELY
DISCOUNTED YET. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AGAIN ON MONDAY, KEEPING US
DRY, WITH ANOTHER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE FAVORS DRY WEATHER WITH THIS, BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS INCREASING AS WE GET FARTHER OUT, SO KEEP UP TO DATE
WITH THE LATEST FORECAST. WITH THAT SAID, GUIDANCE DIVERGES
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, BUT RIGHT NOW OUR NEXT BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL TO SEASONABLY
WARM DEPENDING ON WHAT SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT WERE ON ON ANY GIVEN
DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO PIVOT THROUGH THE
AREA UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING, CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WE'LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF I-29 WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION. AREAS TO THE
WEST MAY SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR EVEN FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT
WHICH MOVES EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. MORE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
MORNING EAST OF US HWY 75. WINDS MAY PERIODICALLY GUST TONIGHT
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS.
AS MENTIONED, STRATUS CLEARS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO MOST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
WINDS BECOME VARIABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL,
BECOMING SOUTHERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...SG
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