293
FXUS63 KFSD 010735
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
235 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND/OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE PUSHING EASTWARDS. MOSTLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FROM
SUNDAY ONWARDS AS QUIETER CONDITIONS RETURN.
- AFTER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK, MORE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
TODAY & TONIGHT: ANOTHER COOL DAY AHEAD! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE
AREA, WE'RE CONTINUING TO WATCH LINGERING AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TRANSITION TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL
INTO THE 30S TO START THE DAY. FROM HERE, EXPECT ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATED FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID-
MORNING AS THE COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW (ULL) GRADUALLY DRIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOOKING AT
THE REST OF THE DAY, QUIETER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AS SURFACE
RIDGING MOVES IN TO REPLACE THE DEPARTING ULL. WITH LINGERING CAA
ALOFT AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS, ANOTHER COOL DAY IS
EXPECTED AS HIGHS PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST. LASTLY, SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY: LOOKING AHEAD, INCREASING MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION (WAA) AND THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BY SUNDAY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. BREEZIER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO MAKE A TEMPORARILY
RETURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SPG TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LEADING TO WIND GUST IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE.
HOWEVER, WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ACCORDING TO SOUNDINGS NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION. NONETHELESS, WITH DRY FUELS AND
BREEZIER WINDS CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SD WHERE RHS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 30 PERCENT RANGE. OTHERWISE, QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUES. LASTLY, SEASONAL TO SLIGHT WARMER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE MOSTLY
QUIETER CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING
ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. UPON FURTHER
ANALYSIS OF SOUNDINGS, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES
GIVEN THE SATURATION IN THE COLUMN. HOWEVER, ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT AT BEST (IF ANY). OTHERWISE, QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. LASTLY, SEASONAL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAIN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO PIVOT THROUGH THE
AREA UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING, CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WE'LL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF I-29 WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION. AREAS TO THE
WEST MAY SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR EVEN FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT
WHICH MOVES EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. MORE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
MORNING EAST OF US HWY 75. WINDS MAY PERIODICALLY GUST TONIGHT
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS.
AS MENTIONED, STRATUS CLEARS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO MOST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
WINDS BECOME VARIABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL,
BECOMING SOUTHERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...SG
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