540
FXUS63 KFSD 020344
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1044 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FROM
SUNDAY ONWARDS AS QUIETER CONDITIONS RETURN.
- AFTER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS SPREADING IN
BEHIND THIS CLEARING. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH
TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE LATE TONIGHT AND MAINLY ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS MILDER
RETURN FLOW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AGAIN, WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE AREA.
A STRONG JET WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER ON SUNDAY,
SWINGING THROUGH SOME ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH A COOL FRONT
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME VERY WEAK
AND VERY ELEVATED (AROUND 600 MB) INSTABILITY NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAYBE
A SPRINKLE OR TWO, BUT LIKELY JUST ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AS THE
LOWER LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON SUNDAY, GENERALLY 55 TO 60 EAST OF I-29 AND IN THE 60S TO
THE WEST.
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLES
THROUGH THE AREA. MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGING
A SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. FOR NOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE VERY LOW GIVEN THE STRUGGLE WITH MOISTURE.
HOWEVER THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AS
MOISTURE STRUGGLES TO RETURN NORTHWARD. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL
GENERALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY, AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME STRONGER
JET ENERGY WILL DIVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND COULD BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE IS STILL PRETTY
LOW BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR AROUND ON SATURDAY TO BRING
SOME SNOW TO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR THIS
WEEKEND SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF CYCLE. LLJ INCREASES TONIGHT
WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY AND MARGINAL LLWS. HAVE OMITTED
FROM KFSD AND KSUX, WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF LLWS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MN BEFORE SURFACE WINDS INCREASE/MIXING COMMENCES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHERWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD, WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SG
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