051
FXUS63 KFSD 022036
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
236 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH QUIETER CONDITIONS.
- AFTER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT NEXT WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR MORE
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD
REMAINS BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE GEFS THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
A WAVE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING A FAST MOVING FRONT TO THE AREA THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE VERY MINIMAL
WITH THE DENDRITIC LAYER AROUND 14-18 KFT AND LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, NOT TO MENTION SOME FAIRLY DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. AT BEST A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE BETTER TIMING ON
THESE FROM ABOUT 5 PM TO 11 PM AND MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90.
OTHERWISE SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE COOLER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA, THE
MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILDER WITH WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S.
A STRONG JET MOVES BY TO THE NORTH MONDAY AND KEEPS TEMPERATURES A
BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY FROM 55 TO 60. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING INCREASED WARM
ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. ON THE TAIL OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL COME ANOTHER BROAD WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT
ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS A STRUGGLE AND PRECIPITATION IS VERY
UNLIKELY. SOME HINTS OF A WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN NE AND COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES MONDAY EVENING
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER, BUT NOTHING IMPACTFUL.
WARM ADVECTION AS THIS WAVE MOVES BY WILL RESULT IN MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY MAINLY 60 TO 65 DEGREES. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR TRAILS THIS WAVE WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. MILD RETURN FLOW SETS UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE LATEST MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH DEEPENING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH SHOULD SET UP A PATTERN
MORE IN FAVOR OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL. WHILE THE
GEFS REMAINS BELOW 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH, THE EC
ENSEMBLE DOES BRING IN A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH EAST OF I-29 THROUGH
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AN EASTWARD MOVING FRONT WILL TURN WINDS
MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND
DECREASE SPEEDS, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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