762
FXUS63 KFSD 031100
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
500 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH QUIETER CONDITIONS.
- AFTER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ONLY
SHOWING LOW CONFIDENCE (20%-30%) IN A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
GREATER OF QPF.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
TODAY & TONIGHT: ANOTHER MILD DAY AHEAD! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE
AREA, A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS
SOUTHWARDS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW POCKETS OF EMBEDDED SPRINKLES
MOSTLY DRIVEN BY INCREASING 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND A WEAK NOCTURNAL
LLJ. WHILE THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING, SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK AS
THE FRONTAL FORCING WEAKENS WITH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. FROM HERE,
SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND QUIET DAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LINGERING COLD AIR
ADVECTION (CAA) ALOFT WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE OUR TEMPERATURES FOR
THE DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED. LOOKING
INTO TONIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN TREND ABOVE NORMAL WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
AS A WEAK WAVE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE SD/NE BORDER, CAN'T RULE OUT A
FEW ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 AS INCREASING DPVA
INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER NOCTURNAL LLJ. NONETHELESS, ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING THIS
MORNING.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: LOOKING INTO THE MIDWEEK, MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW RETURNS ALOFT. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, WITH LIMITED SATURATION ACCORDING TO SOUNDINGS; NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NONETHELESS, THE INCREASE IN CAA AND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD DO JUST ENOUGH TO TEMPORARILY DECREASE OUR HIGHS FROM
THE 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUESDAY TO THE LOW TO UPPER 50S BY WEDNESDAY.
AS THE SPG TIGHTENS BY THURSDAY, WE'LL SEE THE RETURN OF WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID 50S AND MID 60S AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LASTLY, WHILE A BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN WILL
SETUP OVER OUR AREA BY THURSDAY; LIMITED SATURATION WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCE AT BAY FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
THE WEEKEND: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES ALOFT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONS TROUGHING PROGRESSES
OVERHEAD. WITH A RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND LINGERING
CAA ALOFT, SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO 50S. WHILE WE'LL START THE
WEEKEND DRY, COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY
SATURDAY AS A QUICK WAVE DIVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
FEATURE, THIS WILL LIKELY BE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR ANYTHING
PRECIPITATION-WISE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TENDS TO AGREE WITH THE
SENTIMENT AS MOST MEMBERS SHOW LOW CONFIDENCE (20%-30%) IN AT LEAST
A 0.10" OF AN INCH OF QPF OR GREATER. DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES
DURING THE ONSET, P-TYPE COULD VARY BETWEEN RAIN, SNOW, OR A MIX OF
THE TWO. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE'LL HAVE TO CONTINUE WATCHING THINGS
OVER THE COMING DAYS TO IRON OUT KEY DETAILS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 454 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERIST FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE DAY, WILL
SEE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD TONIGHT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90. COULD
SEE A FEW POCKETS OF SPRINKLES MAINLY NEAR KSUX. HOWEVER, DECIDED
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE.
ADDED IN LLWS TO BOTH KFSD & KSUX TONIGHT AS THE NOCTURNAL LLJ
STRENGTHENS. OTHERWISE, AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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