802
FXUS63 KFSD 040438
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1038 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AGAIN FOR TOMORROW WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA. COOLER, MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY
BEFORE WE JUMP BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY.
- OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON SATURDAY,
WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-60%) OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
- UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM AND
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH IT LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST PRECIPITATION TYPES. THERE IS CURRENTLY A LOW (LESS
THAN 30%) CHANCE OF AN INCH OF SNOW, MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
IT'S ANOTHER WARM NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED MAINLY INTO THE LOW-60S. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, HELPING TO GRADUALLY TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION, AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRENGTHENING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB WILL ALLOW FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS RIGHT
EITHER SIDE OF 40 DEGREES. CAMS SHOW SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH THIS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE,
BUT RAINDROPS WILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR BENEATH THE CLOUDS TO DEAL
WITH. SO KEPT US DRY TONIGHT THOUGH CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES HERE OR THERE.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, BRINGING A COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH IT. THIS DRY FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT WE'LL BE MOSTLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF IT
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THUS, ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS INTO THE 60S NEARLY AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE WE WILL STAY IN THE 50S.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW NIGHT, AND THIS MAY HELP MIX DOWN SOME
STRONGER WINDS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA. WINDS DURING THIS TIME WILL GUST UP TO
25-30 MPH, BUT WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WILL STILL BE A BIT
COOLER DUE TO THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID-
50S. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH IT WILL FLATTEN A BIT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND STARTS SLIDING TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA ON THURSDAY,
THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WITH THIS FRONT
WON'T DEVELOP UNTIL THE FRONT IS EAST OF AREA LATE THURSDAY. IT'S
STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN THERE MAY NEED TO
BE SOME MENTION OF RAIN LATE THURSDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-29.
THINGS GET A BIT INTERESTING FROM HERE AS GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, AND THIS WILL OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS WILL HELP SWING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH
IT ON SATURDAY. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW, THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCE
REMAIN, WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA (WHICH WOULD FAVOR LOWER SNOW CHANCES FOR US)
AND THE GFS AND CANADIAN FAVORING A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WHICH
COULD MEAN HIGHER SNOW CHANCES, SO LONG AS TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH, WHICH IS ALSO A QUESTION. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE SHOWING
A 30-60% CHANCE OF QPF GREATER THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO LATE SATURDAY, WITH PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF
SNOW RANGING FROM 0-30%, HIGHEST OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, SO BE SURE TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH
THE LATEST FORECAST! MUCH COLDER AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH AREAS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. SEEING SOME RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHERN NE MOVING
EAST, SO CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLE SOUTH
OF I-90 TONIGHT; CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY
MORNING, MAINLY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN,
LEADING TO LLWS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE STRENGTH
AND DURATION, BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH TO CONTINUE
MENTION AT KHON AND KFSD. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY FOR THE DAY
TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS TAPER DOWN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...SG
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