295
FXUS63 KFSD 042314
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
514 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY BUT PERIODICALLY BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL VARY A
BIT, BUT FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES IN
THE 50S WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE.
- OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES SATURDAY WITH A REGION WIDE
30-50% PROBABILITY. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT
THE STORM'S EVOLUTION. IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD, WE WILL SEE
SOME RAIN THAT TRANSITIONS TO SNOW, SOME OF WHICH MAY BEGIN TO
ACCUMULATE. CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES AS DETAILS BECOME
AVAILABLE.
- A COLD SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
TODAY WILL BE A PLEASANT FALL DAY! CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-
LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TODAY, BRINGING WITH IT A STRONG PUSH OF WAA. SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND GOOD MIXING WILL WARM HIGHS INTO THE 60S.
FOR REFERENCE, AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN
THE LOW 50S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND DECREASING AS YOU MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.
THROUGH THE DAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT EAST, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AS IT DOES SO. THIS AFTERNOON WINDS
DECREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY JUST
BEHIND. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE SPG TIGHTENS AND THE
LLJ INCREASES. OVERNIGHT GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON, WITH
SOME GUSTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 60 APPROACHING 35 MPH. LOWS WILL REMAIN
ON THE WARM SIDE THANKS TO MIXING, IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
WINDS DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE SPG RELAXES AND
A SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVE OVER THE REGION. CAA ON THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL COOL HIGHS CLOSER TO AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A
SIMILAR PATTERN WILL REPEAT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INCREASE AS THE SPG TIGHTENS AHEAD
OF A SURFACE LOW, BUT ALSO USHER IN WARMER AIR. WINDS WILL PEAK
IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AT 25-35 MPH. WINDS
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE 50S AND
60S. FRIDAY WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10
MPH. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER FOR FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S.
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN UPPER WAVE DEEPENING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WAVE WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
OUR REGION SATURDAY MORNING, BRINING OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE CURRENT 12Z RUNS FOR THE GFS AND EC HAVE
CONTINUED TO SHOW A SOUTHERLY TREND TO THE TRACK OF THE STORM.
HOWEVER, THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN
STORM EVOLUTION, MAINLY BASED ON TEMPERATURES IN THE AIR MASS. THE
EC KEEPS TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE THROUGH ROUGHLY 700 MB ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT,
THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN, WITH A TRANSITION
TO SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES IN THE COLUMN
COOL. THE GFS, HOWEVER, HAS THE TEMPERATURES FALLING MUCH FASTER.
WITH THE 12Z RUN NOW INDICATING PRECIPITATION TYPE AT ONSET TO BE
RAIN/SNOW MIX QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY MID-DAY SATURDAY.
SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT, WE MAY SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW. PLEASE
NOTE, THIS STORM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, AND DETAILS ARE
UNCERTAIN. CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THAT SAID,
IF YOU DO HAVE TRAVEL PLANS SATURDAY NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO START
PREPARING FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO DRIVING CONDITIONS.
BY SUNDAY MORNING SNOW WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE REGION AND DRY BUT
COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO 40S, AND TUESDAY IN THE
50S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEHIND A FRONT, WHICH WILL ALSO BRING
SOME BREEZY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING (GUSTS AROUND 20-25
KNOTS). CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY LLWS, BUT THINK THIS
IMPACT WILL BE NEGATED DUE TO THE GUSTS AND OMITTED ANY
MENTION. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
BECOME LIGHT TO VARIABLE TO END THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...SG
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