607
FXUS63 KFSD 051743
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1143 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW BY SATURDAY. WHILE SOME DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NOW HAS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE (50%-70%) IN 0.10" OF AN INCH OR GREATER OF QPF.
- AN INFLUX OF COOLER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. AS A
RESULT, WIND CHILLS COULD DECREASE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS EACH MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
TODAY & TONIGHT: A MILD DAY AHEAD! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, A
FEW SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING MOSTLY
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DPVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE.
WHILE WE COULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO FESTER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS, EXPECT MOST OF THIS TO DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING WITH LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS. FROM HERE, QUIETER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AS HIGHS PEAK IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S FOR THE DAY.
OTHERWISE, THE BREEZIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN TO REPLACE THE
RECENTLY DEPARTED COLD FRONT. LOOKING INTO TONIGHT, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL RETURN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE SPG
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN INTO THURSDAY WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. LASTLY, SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
BE ON TAP OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S.
THURSDAY & FRIDAY: LOOKING INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK,
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID
60S. BREEZIER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS
THE SPG TIGHTENS RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE.
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 45+ MPH ACROSS
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CHATEAU DES PRAIRIES, BUT DECIDED THEY WILL
BE ISOLATED ENOUGH IN NATURE TO FORGO A WIND HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE INCREASE IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION (CAA) ALOFT AND SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
BY FRIDAY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START OUR COOLING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND. NONETHELESS, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOVER IN THE LOW 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WITH THIS THE STAGE IS SET FOR OUR
NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADING INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY ONWARDS: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH TWIN SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30%-60%). LOOKING CLOSER INTO THE SYSTEM,
LONG-RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE EVERYTHING
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE 05.00Z RUNS. ANOTHER IMPORTANT NOTE IS THAT
WITH NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO TREND COLDER TEMPERATURE-WISE, THE
SCALES ARE STARTING TO TIP TOWARDS MORE SNOW THAN RAIN AT TIMES WITH
THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, EVERYTHING ELSE REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME.
THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SNOW OR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW GIVEN TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S TO START ON
SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON IF TEMPERATURES CAN GRADUALLY WARM DURING THE
DAY, YOU COULD SEE A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN, SNOW OR A CONTINUED
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. WE'LL LIKELY SEE THINGS
BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY EVENING.
OVERALL RAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNCERTAIN
MAINLY DUE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. NONETHELESS, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
THEIR PROBABILITIES WITH NOW MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE (50%-70%)
OF 0.10" OF AN INCH OR GREATER OF QPF FOR MOST AREAS.
LOOKING AHEAD, QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY AS A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE PLAINS. WITH AN INFLUX OF COLD
AIR BEHIND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO 40S
WITH THE COLDEST CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN
PLAY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE EVEN COLDER WIND CHILL EACH MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY GETTING AS LOW AS THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS AT TIMES. WITH THIS MIND, MAKE SURE TO
BUNDLE UP WHEN HEADING ON THOSE MORNING COMMUTES!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THIS PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID-
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 25-35 KTS BY MID-MORNING FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. PEAKING FOR KFSD AT AROUND
33 KTS BY LATE MORNING, AND KSUX AROUND 27 KTS BY AROUND NOON/EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE MY LATE MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS, LLWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AFTER 06.10Z FOR ALL THREE SITES. SPEED SHEAR OF AROUND
45-48 KTS IS EXPECTED FOR APPROXIMATELY 3-5 HOURS.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. BROKEN
TO SCATTERED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 20K
FEET.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...AJP
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