217
FXUS63 KFSD 052339
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
539 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND PERIODICALLY BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL VARY A
BIT, BUT FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES IN
THE 50S WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE.
- OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES SATURDAY WITH A REGION WIDE
30-60% PROBABILITY. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT
THE STORM'S EVOLUTION. IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD, WE WILL SEE
SOME RAIN THAT TRANSITIONS TO SNOW, SOME OF WHICH MAY BEGIN TO
ACCUMULATE. CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES AS DETAILS BECOME
AVAILABLE.
- COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RESULTANT WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE TEENS TO
SINGLE DIGITS. BE SURE YOU ARE PROPERLY DRESSED FOR COLD
WEATHER!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH HIGHS AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. BREEZY WINDS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY, STRONG WAA IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL WARM THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
POSITIVE 6 TO 10 DEGREE C RANGE. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SURFACE
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S FROM I-29 AND EAST,
AND TO THE MID 60S FOR AREAS WEST OF I-29. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING SPG AS A LOW PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. IN
ADDITION, GOOD MIXING THROUGH THE 850 MB LAYER WILL TAP INTO A
40-50 KT LLJ. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, ENTERING EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. DOWN SLOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BUFFALO
RIDGE MAY BOOST GUSTS THERE TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OR
GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. NO DISCERNIBLE
TRENDS ARE APPARENT WHEN COMPARING PREVIOUS DETERMINISTIC RUNS.
BUT THE STRONGEST GUSTS APPEAR TO BE SPORADIC AND SHORT LIVED,
AND SO HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT
REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH. A FINAL CONCERN
FOR THURSDAY IS FIRE WEATHER. THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL, GREATER THAN 40% FOR MOST AREAS,
CURED FUELS AND STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU ARE OUT WORKING OR PLAYING TO
ENSURE THAT YOU ARE NOT THE SPARK!
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL TURN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND INCREASE AS THE SPG ONCE AGAIN TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING WAVE. GUSTS WILL PEAK AROUND NOON AT 20-30 MPH, THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT BY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE 40S AND 50S THANKS
TO THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER WESTERN CANADA
AND DIG SOUTHEAST. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH WIDE VARIANCE STILL
PRESENT IN LONG TERM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THEY HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TRACK. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BEGIN OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND PROGRESS RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE (30-60%) IN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AS THE
LOW PASSES BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
DRIFT NORTH. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH WILL MAKE A BIG IMPACT ON
SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES, AND THEREFORE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
FORECASTED HIGHS FOR SATURDAY ARE CURRENTLY LOW TO MID 40S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-90, COOLING TO THE MID 30S AS YOU PROGRESS NORTH AND INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. CONSIDERING ALL OF THIS, THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE THAT PRECIPITATION BEGINS SATURDAY
MORNING AS RAIN OR POSSIBLY RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90.
AS WE WARM THROUGH THE MORNING ANY SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN. AS
THE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGINS TO WRAP IN MUCH COLDER AIR
FROM THE NORTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN MAY AGAIN
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS SEQUENCE
OF EVENTS. HOWEVER, BY THE TIME RAIN WOULD TRANSITION BACK TO
SNOW IN THE EVENING, THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LIGHT
ACCUMULATION WITH ONLY A 30-40% PROBABILITY OF AN INCH OR MORE
SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY. AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF I-29 WILL SEE AFTERNOON WINDS GUST TO 20-30 MPH,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AS YOU MOVE WEST. PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SEE THE STRONGEST GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL IF IT HAPPENS TO BE
SNOWING. WINDS TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING, BUT REMAIN BREEZY
OVERNIGHT GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH.
FOR SUNDAY, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY BUT COLD. STRONG CAA
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL TANK OUR HIGHS INTO THE 20S AND 30S.
WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH. AS A RESULT, WIND CHILLS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS. THANKFULLY, THE COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT
LIVED. MONDAY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST, TURNING
WINDS TO THE SOUTH. WAA WILL WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS TO 30S TO
40S. TUESDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT
SEASONAL FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SOME FAIRLY STRONG LLWS WITH ROUGHLY
40-50 KNOTS ABOUT 1-2 KFT AGL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SURFACE WINDS AT THAT TIME GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR
LESS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...08
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