529
FXUS63 KFSD 061754
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1154 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40
MPH EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. ISOLATED POCKETS OF HIGHER (45+ MPH)
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW BY SATURDAY. WHILE SOME DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE (30%-40%) IN AN INCH OR GREATER OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL NORTHEAST OF A DE SMET TO SIOUX FALLS TO
STORM LAKE, IA LINE.
- AN INFLUX OF COOLER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. AS A
RESULT, WIND CHILLS COULD DECREASE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS EACH MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
TODAY & TONIGHT: A WARM AND BREEZY DAY AHEAD! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS
THE AREA, MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST THIS MORNING MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH A LIFTING WARM FRONT. FROM HERE, EXPECT SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK AS WE TAP INTO
BETTER MIXING AND A STRENGTHENING LLJ. WITH THIS IN MIND, WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WHILE SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO KEY ON A SMALL POCKET OF
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS (45+ MPH) ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE COTEAU DES
PRAIRIES, DECIDED TO FORGO A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME MOSTLY DUE
TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANTICIPATED VALUES IN GUIDANCE.
NONETHELESS, IF WIND SPEEDS UPSTREAM BEGIN TO TREND STRONGER DURING
THE DAY; A SHORT-FUSE ADVISORY MAY BE NEED BETWEEN 14Z-20Z (8AM-
2PM). NONETHELESS, WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS JUST IN
CASE A PIVOT IS NEEDED.
SHIFTING GEARS HERE, SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND INCREASING WAA WILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S. THE COMBINATION OF MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO
SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, WITH RH VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS (38% TO 40+%); ANY CONCERNS WOULD BE
SPECIFICALLY WIND-RELATED WITH THE DRY FUELS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
THIS IN MIND, MAKE SURE TO LIMIT ANY ACTIVITY THAT COULD CREATE A
SPARK AS THE ENVIRONMENT COULD SPREAD A FIRE OUT OF CONTROL QUICKLY!
LOOKING ALOFT, A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH LINGERING LIFT AROUND AND A
STRONG LLJ STILL OVERHEAD, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES
ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-29. NONETHELESS, ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE LIMITED (IF ANY) DUE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. LASTLY, A
SLIGHT WARMER NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY
DECREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
FRIDAY & SATURDAY: LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND, AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUES ALOFT BY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE SWINGS THROUGH
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BESIDES A FEW SPRINKLES NORTH OF I-
90, MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY COMPLETELY DRY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE 50S AND LOW 60S FOR THE DAY. WITH THIS THE STAGE IS SET FOR OUR
NEXT CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. TAKING A
LOOK ALOFT, TWO PHASING MID-LEVEL WAVES WILL DIVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SNOW (30%-60%) ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE 06.00Z RUN OF
GUIDANCE, THINGS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE FIRST WAVE
DIVING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE SECONDARY WAVE FOLLOWING SUIT.
WITH THIS IN MIND, QPF HAS NOW STARTED TO TREND TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WITH MOST NBM MEMBERS ONLY SHOWING A 30%-60% CHANCE OF A 0.10"
OF AN INCH OF QPF OR GREATER WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN IA. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO 1. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
BOTH SYSTEMS AND 2. A WEAK 850 MB RIDGE THAT DEVELOP RIGHT IN
BETWEEN BOTH SHORTWAVES. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
WITH THE RIDGING WILL DO JUST ENOUGH TO DISRUPT THE MOISTURE RETURNS
OF BOTH SYSTEMS THUS LOWERING OUR OVERALL AMOUNTS.
WITH BOTH THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE AND NAM TRENDING DRIER AND THE
GFS/EURO CONTINUING TO TREND WETTER, MY GUT FEELING IS TO HEDGE MY
BETS ON THE DRIER SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME ESPECIALLY WITH THE
CONTINUED SOUTHWARD TREND. SHIFTING GEARS TO TEMPERATURES, MOST
GUIDANCE STILL DOESN'T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. IN FACT, BOTH THE NAM (WARMER) AND GFS
(COLDER) ARE POLAR OPPOSITES OF EACH OTHER ON THE SPECTRUM. WHILE
THE SPREAD IS ONLY ABOUT 4-5 DEGREES, THAT PLAYS HUGE PART IN P-
TYPES DIFFERENCES IN WINTER EVENTS AND THUS THE UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUE. NONETHELESS, WITH THE CURRENT NBM CONTINUING TO SHOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, ANY DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY START AS A RAIN-SNOW MIX THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN OR
SNOW DEPENDING ON IF YOU'RE NORTH OR SOUTH OF I-90 AS COLDER AIR
WRAPS IN WITH THE SECONDARY WAVE. WHILE ITS STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO
TALK ABOUT EXACT AMOUNTS, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (30%-40%) FOR AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOWFALL CONTINUE TO BE NORTHEAST OF A DE SMET TO
SIOUX FALL TO STORM LAKE, IA LINE. LASTLY, WE'LL SEE QUIETER
CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE EVENING HOURS OF SATURDAY.
SUNDAY ONWARDS: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, QUIETER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
PLAINS. WITH AN INFLUX OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SYSTEM AND NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS, A MUCH CHILLIER START IS
EXPECTED ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS WAKING UP TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW DOUBLE DIGITS TO TEENS. TO MAKE MATTERS
WORSE, EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED WITH VALUES AS LOW AS
THE SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WITH THIS IN MIND, MAKE SURE TO
BUNDLE UP ON THOSE MORNING COMMUTES! SHIFTING GEARS HERE, SUNDAY
WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HOWEVER, THERE IS HOPE! CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO TREND WARMER FROM MONDAY ONWARDS AS INCREASING WAA WITH AN
APPROACHING WAVE HELPS HIGHS BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 30S TO UPPER 40S.
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE
MONDAY TO EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE; HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TOWARDS
OUR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 50S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
30-35 KT WIND GUSTS (LOCALLY UP TO 40 KTS) WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, TURNING OUR WINDS FROM OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LATE TONIGHT, WINDS AROUND 1,500 TO 2,000 FEET WILL BE
GUSTING BETWEEN 40-45 KTS, LEADING TO LLWS CONCERNS AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW, GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KTS OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES, BUT
A PASSING SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL BRING SOME MVFR CIGS TO
MAINLY SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR TOMORROW MORNING. THESE MVFR
CIGS LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF KHON AT THIS TIME, BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...SAMET
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