531
FXUS63 KFSD 101118
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
518 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, RUNNING 5-10+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
- TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND CLIMB WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
TEMPERATURES REACH 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH NEXT RISK FOR RAIN
ARRIVING TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT: A COLD START TO THE WORK WEEK WITH SOME ISOLATED
FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CHALLENGE THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HANDLE THE STRATUS POORLY OVERALL. AREAS ALONG THE I-29 CORRIDOR AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN MN/NORTHWESTERN IA WHERE STRATUS
REMAINS PREVALENT HAVE STAYED IN THE 20S. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES
ARE ALREADY FALLING INTO THE TEENS. EXPECT LOWS THIS MORNING TO FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, WHICH SHOULD STAY
MOSTLY CLOUD FREE SAVE FOR SOME INCREASING CIRRUS THROUGH THIS
MORNING.. ELSEWHERE, WE SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS, ALBEIT MORE
SLOWLY FOR CLOUDY AREAS WHICH MAY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 20S DEPENDING
ON HOW SLOWLY STRATUS CLEARS. WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING DROP TO NEAR
ZERO AND INTO THE LOWER TEENS SO BUNDLE UP AS YOU HEAD OUT THE DOOR.
EXPECT CIRRUS TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WAA AND THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS US WARM INTO THE 40S WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER, WITH AREAS WITH SNOWPACK IN THE 30S. MID CLOUDS MOVE IN
TONIGHT WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE, WHICH WITH CONTINUED WAA AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT KEEPS TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE ON THE
MILD SIDE, IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.
VETERAN'S DAY-FRIDAY: DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS TO THE WEST INTO MID
WEEK, MOVING EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, A LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY, WITH LOW (LESS
THAN 15%) CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
MN TUESDAY. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE 50S AND 60S, WHICH IS 10-
15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. LOWS
ALSO REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. IF CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDS, HURON MAY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD WARM
LOWS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BEHIND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY, AND FRIDAY MAY BE BREEZY AS WELL AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
TROUGH.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING MOVES
INTO THE MIDWEST AND TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS
STILL VARIED ON THE DETAILS - ESPECIALLY WITH A SPLIT IN FLOW WITH A
CLOSED LOW ACROSS TX WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH STRETCHING NORTH INTO
CANADA. MODELS THIS MORNING ARE MORE IN ALIGNMENT WITH OUR AREA
BEING SPLIT BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE LOWS. A COLD FRONT AND CAA WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. AS OF
NOW, ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF 0.10" IS LOW TO MODERATE ACROSS THE
AREA (20-45%) AND HIGHEST EAST OF I-29. DO EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE AS
DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS HAS BEGUN TO ERODE AND SHIFT WEST OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO, AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THIS
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN IF IT WILL MAKE IT TO KHON, SO
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME MVFR STRATUS THROUGH 14Z. OUTSIDE
OF THIS STRATUS, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS 20-25 WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER TODAY. MAY SEE SOME LLWS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE WINDS DROP OFF. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION AT
ALL THREE SITES AT THIS TIME.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...SG
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