893
FXUS63 KFSD 110848
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
248 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS AT TIMES TO 35 MPH.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB DURING THE WORK WEEK. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH OUR NEXT
RAIN CHANCES (20%-30%) RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT: SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING,
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW HAS AIDED IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES STEADY, IF
NOT WARMING, OVERNIGHT. HAVE SEEN SOME STRONGER WINDS THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTS AT TIMES TO 35 MPH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN AND INTO
TAPERING DOWN INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN IA AND
SOUTHEASTERN SD WITH STRONG WAA AND A STRONGER JET IN PLACE. CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES/SPRINKLES THROUGH DAYBREAK.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, WE'LL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS
SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE FRONT. GUSTS THROUGH
THE DAY 25 TO 35 MPH AND DIRECTION SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY. WE'LL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR AREAS WITH
SNOWPACK, AND INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR THE SNOWLESS
AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
30S.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, SLIDING
EAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORT WAVES TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, BUT A LACK OF
MOISTURE KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY. PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW IS EXPECTED, WHICH IN ADDITION TO WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE ON THE BREEZIER SIDE. HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S, WITH EVEN SOME
70S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD BY FRIDAY. LOWS ALSO CLIMB 10
OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, IN THE 30S TO EVEN 40S BY LATE WEEK.
FOR REFERENCE, CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ARE MID 40S FOR HIGHS AND MID
20S FOR LOWS.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT
WEEK, PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. 11.00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROM BOTH THE
10.00Z AND 10.12Z RUNS WITH THE EXIT OF THE RIDGE SATURDAY AND THE
TIMING OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF THIS PATTERN. FIRST COMES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE
SPLIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NORTHERN
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND THE SOUTHERN
CLOSED LOW SWEEPING NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LATER TRENDS,
BETTER RAIN CHANCES NOW LOOK TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER,
PROBABILITIES OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME ARE FALLING AS WELL, CLOSER TO 30-40% EAST OF I-29, DECREASING
AS YOU MOVE WEST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL, COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS PERSIST BENEATH THICK CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT THANKS TO A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ). THE LLJ WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT, BRINGING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA MAY TAP
INTO STRONGER GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
TURN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AND THE LLJ WEAKENS ALOFT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TOMORROW WITH GUSTS UP TO
ABOUT 25 KNOTS TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...MEYERS
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