740
FXUS63 KFSD 111933
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
133 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.
- DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH OUR NEXT
RAIN CHANCES (20%-30%) POTENTIALLY RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A MILDER DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE
AREA, MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S CONTINUE TO MELT OUR REMAINING SNOWPACK.
WHILE AREAS WITHOUT A SNOWPACK COULD GET INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S, EXPECT AREAS WITH A MELTING SNOWPACK TO HOVER SOMEWHERE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO 50S RANGE FOR THE DAY. OTHERWISE, BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE HEADING INTO THE EVENING AS COOLER AIR
CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION. WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND OVERNIGHT, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
RIVER VALLEY FOG AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
HOWEVER, WITH HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL; THESE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT
ON IF SURFACE WINDS CAN GET LIGHT ENOUGH AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. LASTLY, REFREEZING SNOW MELT COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SCATTERED SLICK SPOTS WHEN MAKING THOSE MORNING
COMMUTES SO MAKE SURE TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: LOOKING INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK, QUIETER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA AS HEIGHTS RISE WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. MULTIPLE PUSHES OF MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION (WAA) ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW OUR TEMPERATURES TO TAKE ON A WARMING TREND. AS A
RESULT, HIGHS WILL INCREASE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S BY WEDNESDAY TO
THE 60S TO LOW 70S BY FRIDAY. SHIFTING GEARS HERE, LIGHTER WINDS
OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG TO START
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH ONLY THE
NAM BASED GUIDANCE PICKING UP ON IT SO FAR; CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. LASTLY, GIVEN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WE'LL HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR RECORD WARM LOWS GOING INTO
SATURDAY. THE MOST ACHIEVABLE OF WHICH WILL BE AT SIOUX FALLS AND
HURON WHICH HAVE RECORDS OF 47 (1931) AND 41 (1941) DEGREES
RESPECTFULLY.
SATURDAY ONWARDS: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN RETURNS FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. LOOKING ALOFT,
11.12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE EXPECTED
TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, WITH LIMITED SATURATION ACCORDING TO
SOUNDINGS, LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE LIMITED
HEADING INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL
LOW (ULL) WILL LIKELY LIFT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (20%-30%). EXACTLY WHERE THINGS
SET UP IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS TAKING A MORE
NORTHERN TRACK BRINGING THE WAVE ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE
EURO/CANADIAN TAKING A SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS KANSAS/MISSOURI.
NONETHELESS, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S ON BOTH DAYS EXPECT MOSTLY
RAIN WITH ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS. LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, BOTH
THE GEFS AND ENS SHOW AROUND 30%-40% PROBABILITIES OF 0.10" OF AN
INCH OR GREATER OF QPF AND ALSO LOW PROBABILITIES (20% OR LESS) OF
MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND, CONTINUE TO
MONITOR YOUR LOCAL FORECAST MOVING FORWARDS AS THE DETAILS ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS TAF PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
LLWS MAINLY EAST OF I-29 TONIGHT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO
LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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