880
FXUS63 KFSD 121928
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
128 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW (30% OR LESS) IN
OCCURRENCE.
- MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE NEAR SEASONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH OUR NEXT
RAIN CHANCES (20%-30%) POTENTIALLY RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A MILD DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE
AREA, PEAK FALL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT IN
OUR HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS WHERE BREEZIER CONDITIONS PERSIST. WHILE
THE COMBINATION OF BREEZIER CONDITIONS AND LOWER RH VALUES (30%-35%)
COULD LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR SURFACE WINDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN APPROACH
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARDS. FROM HERE EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DECREASE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. LASTLY, CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH LIMITED
SUPPORT FROM GUIDANCE AND NOW LIMITED MOISTURE; CONFIDENCE IS LOW
(30% OF LOWER) IN OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: LOOKING INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK, QUIETER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA AS HEIGHTS RISE WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. MULTIPLE PUSHES OF MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION (WAA) ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW OUR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. WITH THIS IN MIND, HIGHS WILL INCREASE FROM THE MID
50S TO MID 60S BY THURSDAY TO THE 60S TO LOW 70S BY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY FRIDAY AS THE
SPG TIGHTENS LEADING TO WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. WHILE THE
INCREASE IN WINDS SPEEDS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER AT TIMES, THE MAIN CONCERNS WOULD BE HOW QUICKLY A FIRE COULD
SPREAD OUT OF CONTROL SO MAKE SURE TO LIMIT ANY ACTIVITY THAT COULD
CREATE A SPARK. SHIFTING GEARS HERE, LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF VALLEY FOG BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
WITH ONLY THE NAM-BASED GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO PICK UP ON IT SO FAR;
CONFIDENCE IS LOW (30% OR LESS) IN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. LASTLY,
GIVEN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES; WE'LL HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOK
OUT FOR RECORD WARM LOWS GOING INTO SATURDAY. THE MOST ACHIEVABLE OF
WHICH WILL BE AT HURON WHICH HAS A RECORDS OF 41 DEGREES WHICH WAS
ORIGINALLY SET IN 1931.
SATURDAY ONWARDS: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN RETURNS FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING
ALOFT, 12.12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, WITH LIMITED SATURATION
ACCORDING TO SOUNDINGS, LOOKS LIKE THE "BEST" PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY-14
CORRIDOR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL
LOW (ULL) WILL LIKELY LIFT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (30%-50%). WHILE CONFIDENCE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN OUR CHANCES, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT,
AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. NONETHELESS, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S ON BOTH DAYS EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN WITH SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN. LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, BOTH THE
GEFS AND ENS SHOW AROUND 40%-60% PROBABILITIES OF 0.10" OF AN INCH
OR GREATER OF QPF AND ALSO LOW PROBABILITIES (30% OR LESS) OF
MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND, CONTINUE TO
MONITOR YOUR LOCAL FORECAST MOVING FORWARDS AS THE DETAILS ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS TAF PERIOD. BESIDES A FEW
HIGHER CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOST CLEAR AND QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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