952
FXUS63 KFSD 231144
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
544 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER, BUT STILL 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEK. TURNING
WINDY AND COLDER NEXT WEEKEND.
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION DURING THE POST-HOLIDAY
TRAVEL PERIOD, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION DETAILS
IS LOW.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BREEZIER DAYS IN
SNOW-FREE AREAS, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
TODAY/TONIGHT: A COOLER BUT STILL MILD DAY IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
MIXING WILL BE LIMITED AS A SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS RELATIVELY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF SNOW COVER AND
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING, MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
CHRISTMAS EVE-CHRISTMAS DAY: NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 850-500MB TEMPS
NEAR THE TOP OF SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY. HOWEVER, LATEST MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME TRENDS BENEATH THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM 850MB
LEVEL THAT LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING STRONG WARMING AT THE
SURFACE. MOST NOTABLY, A SURFACE LOW WHICH A FEW DAYS AGO WAS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY/NORTHERN MINNESOTA
BY CHRISTMAS DAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE
DAKOTAS. THIS SHIFTS THE WARM SECTOR FROM A LARGE PART OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO JUST SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA, WITH OUR AREA SEEING STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SOME INDICATIONS
THAT STRATUS COULD BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING
INVERSION, WHICH WOULD FURTHER LIMIT TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS
DAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE LACK
OF SNOW COVER, STILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
THE NBM (WHICH IS NEAR TO BELOW THE ENSEMBLE'S 50TH PERCENTILE),
BUT RECORD-SETTING WARMTH IS LESS LIKELY.
THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS MOSTLY DRY, AND AS OF NOW THE STRATUS
LAYER LOOKS TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT MUCH OF A DRIZZLE THREAT, BUT
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN THE COMING MODEL CYCLES.
FRIDAY-MONDAY: OVERALL, THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THIS POST-HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEKEND REMAIN LOW FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER, CANNOT CONFIDENTLY SAY THE PERIOD WILL BE 100%
DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE JET STREAM SETTLES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS. MOISTURE CURRENTLY APPEARS
SPARSE, BUT SUBTLE WAVES COULD PRODUCE SPOTTY LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THE
END OF THIS WEEK, BUT A STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. FALLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, DROPPING HIGHS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY
BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. THE COOL-DOWN CURRENTLY APPEARS
SHORT-LIVED WITH MILD AIR BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION BEYOND
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD, BUT
WATCHING A BROAD AREA OF MAINLY MVFR STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MODELS DIFFER ON THEIR
HANDLING OF THIS STRATUS, BUT SOME SUGGEST WE WILL SEE A THIN
MOIST LAYER WORK SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS MOST FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR MID-LATE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS DECREASES AFTER 18Z, BUT IF THE
STRATUS DOES REMAIN MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, OR
EVEN TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON, A SHIFT TOWARD EAST-SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION COULD DRAW THE STRATUS
WESTWARD AFTER SUNSET. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KFSD/KSUX AT THIS TIME, BUT INTRODUCED SCT010-020
TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION WILL
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER 24/04Z.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...JH
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