451
FXUS63 KFSD 232054
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
254 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER, BUT STILL 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEK. TURNING
WINDY AND COLDER THIS WEEKEND, WITH WIND CHILLS LIKELY
DROPPING BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY MORNING.
- OUTSIDE OF SOME LOW-END DRIZZLE POTENTIAL, DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION DURING THE POST-HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION DETAILS REMAINS LOW.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BREEZIER DAYS IN
SNOW-FREE AREAS, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
IT'S BEEN ANOTHER MILD DECEMBER DAY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE MID-30S TO MID-40S THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR WHERE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID-20S TO LOW-30S. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO THOSE WITH LAST MINUTE GIFT
SHOPPING PLANS SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO WEATHER-WISE! FOR TONIGHT,
LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN AREAS THAT SAW THE MOST SNOWMELT
TODAY, WHICH WOULD BE IN PLACES WHERE THE GREATEST SNOW DEPTH
REMAINS. FOR OUR AREA, THIS IS IN NORTHWEST IOWA ALONG AND EAST
OF A SHELDON TO STORM LAKE LINE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
EAST OF US TONIGHT, AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB ALSO LOOKS
TO MAKE A RETURN. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL
ALL LEAD A MILD NIGHT FOR DECEMBER STANDARDS, WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID-20S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID-30S IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE DEW POINTS ARE SET TO RISE
INTO THE 40S BY NOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH
COULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST AS THE DEPTH OF
THE STRATUS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTS IT AT THIS TIME, BUT
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. IF DRIZZLE DOES DEVELOP, WE WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES CLOSELY. BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW WE DO
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IF AND WHEN ANY DRIZZLE OCCURS,
THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE IF DRIZZLE DEVELOPS EARLIER IN THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD AND CLEAR OUT IN PLENTY OF TIME TO ALLOW
FOR HIGHS TO BE NEAR 60 IN PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, REACHING THE 40S FOR MOST OF US ALONG AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LARGE PART OF THE AREA BEING STUCK
UNDER STRATUS. HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE REGARDLESS,
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS RANGING FROM THE MID-50S IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE UPPER-30S OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THERE WILL STILL BE DECENTLY STRONG WAA AT 850 MB
ONGOING ON CHRISTMAS DAY, SO IF STRATUS IS ABLE TO BREAK AWAY
EVEN FOR A LITTLE BIT, TEMPERATURES WILL END UP WARMER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT THE STRATUS DECK WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
DRIZZLE, WHICH WILL MEAN ANOTHER NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS DRIZZLE IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. FOR NOW, LEFT DRIZZLE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS
DAY.
AN UPPER-WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THAT MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA,
WITH ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 20% MAINLY EAST OF US HIGHWAY-75. THE EC AI
MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS, SHOWING A 20-40% OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ALONG AND EAST OF I-29, BUT THIS
REMAINS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD AND
QUIET DAY AS WE'LL SEE SOME SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT, WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW-60S IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE
LOW-40S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
A STRONG TROUGH WILL DIG OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, HELPING TO MOVE A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, GUIDANCE ISN'T TOO EXCITED
FOR US PRECIPITATION-WISE, WITH ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION AROUND 20% FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, FOCUSED
NORTH OF I-90. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WE'LL SEE
ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT'S STILL A FEW DAYS OUT,
SO BE SURE TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE ANY POST-HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS.
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE MILD ON SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT
FOLLOWS, WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S TO
LOW-50S. THIS MAY BE LOWERED OR EVEN RAISED SLIGHTLY AS
GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA THAT FOLLOWS. AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW
AND CAUSE A BIG DROP IN TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WHEN WE LOOK TO SEE LOWS DOWN TO THE SINGLE-DIGITS TO TEENS.
WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR,
WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING 45-60 MPH WINDS AT 850 MB. THE
LATEST NBM SHOWS GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH UP TO A 20-30% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 45
MPH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, SO GET READY TO
BRING THOSE HEAVIER COATS BACK OUT!
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TRY BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER-LOW MEANDERS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR US
TO BECOME MILDER ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS WE LOOK TO SEE HIGHS
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 30S AND PERHAPS THE 40S FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE RIDING THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW ENGLAND UPPER-LOW, WHICH
COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN ANY DETAILS
OWING TO THIS BEING A WEEK OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
THE STRATUS DECK OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD LATE THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST
OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR
TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL AREAS OF MVFR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE MOST SNOW MELT OCCURS TODAY, BUT THIS
WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A KSPW TO
KSLB LINE. HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME TOMORROW MORNING, A SURGE
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND BRING
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CEILINGS TO END THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT INCREASE A BIT
OVERNIGHT TO GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF LLWS DEVELOPING AS WELL, MAINLY FROM KHON TO KFSD
AFTER 4Z TONIGHT AND ENDING AROUND DAYBREAK.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...SAMET
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page