356
FXUS63 KFSD 242125
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
325 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG, SOME DENSE, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-29 OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALL THE WAY WESTWARD
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AS WELL.
- AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR AND JUST BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT
MAINLY NORTH OF I-90, PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG
COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY SLICK SPOTS MAINLY ON UNTREATED
AND ELEVATED SURFACES. USE EXTRA CAUTION ON THE ROADS AND
CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE TRAVELING.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK,
BUT WE TURN WINDY AND COLDER THIS WEEKEND. WIND CHILLS LIKELY
DROP BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY MORNING NORTH OF I-90 AND THEN AREA-
WIDE BY MONDAY MORNING.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY-SATURDAY ARE LOW, BUT MAY HAVE
TO WATCH FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BREEZIER DAYS IN
SNOW- FREE AREAS, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
UNDERNEATH THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK, LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY ARLINGTON
TO SIOUX FALLS TO LE MARS AND POINTS EAST. THIS AREA OF STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE ON ITS WESTERN EDGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
EXPAND WESTWARD AGAIN OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT, BUT ALSO EXPAND WESTWARD AS WELL. MOST OF THE AREA SEES FOG
TONIGHT, THOUGH THE OVERALL "THICKNESS" OF THE FOG WILL
DECREASE WITH WESTWARD EXTENT. IN OTHER WORDS, AREAS EAST OF
I-29 INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, HENCE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT
WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. FURTHER EXPANSION WESTWARD OF
THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT, SO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST! AS TEMPERATURES COOL OFF TONIGHT, MANY OF US
LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND FREEZING MAINLY NORTH OF I-90, SO ANY FOG
COULD FREEZE TO MAINLY ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS OVERPASSES,
BRIDGES, AND TREES.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. REPORTS OF DRIZZLE TODAY HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY AT BEST AS THE STRATUS LAYER IS ONLY MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF IT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO AT
LEAST CONTINUE THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DRIZZLE, INCLUDING
FREEZING DRIZZLE, WILL BE, BUT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DOES
FORM (AGAIN MAINLY NORTH OF I-90), MAY CAUSE A GLAZE OF ICE TO
FORM MAINLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES. ALL THIS TO SAY, FOR THOSE
WITH TRAVEL PLANS EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR ON EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING, BE SURE TO USE EXTRA CAUTION ON THE ROADS AND CHECK
ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE YOU LEAVE! MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE STUCK
UNDER STRATUS CHRISTMAS DAY, KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S. SO STILL MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT
NOT RECORD BREAKING. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AS YOU HEAD WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER, WITH HIGHS IN SOUTH- CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
IN THE UPPER-50S TO NEAR 60.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE MILD DAYS, BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
STILL SET TO MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR TO THE AREA. LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING ARE NOT LOOKING AS COLD, BUT
WE STILL LOOK TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY IS NOW TRENDING TOWARDS BEING THE COLDEST NIGHT
OVER THE PERIOD, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO THE NEGATIVE TEENS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90. WE LOOK
TO SEE A RETURN TO MILDER TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY OF NEXT.
PRECIPITATION-WISE, STILL LOOKING AT ONLY LOW-END LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ON SUNDAY WHEN LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LOOK
POSSIBLE, BUT NOTHING TOO IMPACTFUL EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
AN IFR STRATUS DECK IS LOCATED ALONG A KMDS TO KFSD TO KSUX
CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST, WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG UNDERNEATH. THIS
AREA OF STRATUS WILL LARGELY STAY PUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
THOUGH IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN EDGE OF IT NEAR KSUX
WILL ERODE ENOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THERE, WITH CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING
AROUND 50-55% AT KSUX. THIS AREA OF STRATUS WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD TONIGHT AND COVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. DENSE FOG WILL ALSO EXPAND ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
IOWA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT, BUT
DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
ANY AREA UNDER STRATUS LOOKS TO BE CAPABLE OF SOME DRIZZLE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY-81. WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO FREEZING TONIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF I-90, SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT GLAZE OF
ICE. RIGHT NOW, THIS THREAT LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF KFSD AND EAST
OF KHON, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
INCREASING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-055-
056-062.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ071-080-081-
089-090-097-098.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-032.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...SAMET
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