365
FXUS63 KFSD 250448
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1048 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG, SOME DENSE, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-29 OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALL THE WAY WESTWARD
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AS WELL.
- AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR AND JUST BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT
MAINLY NORTH OF I-90, PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG
COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY SLICK SPOTS MAINLY ON UNTREATED
AND ELEVATED SURFACES. USE EXTRA CAUTION ON THE ROADS AND
CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE TRAVELING.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK,
BUT WE TURN WINDY AND COLDER THIS WEEKEND. WIND CHILLS LIKELY
DROP BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY MORNING NORTH OF I-90 AND THEN AREA-
WIDE BY MONDAY MORNING.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY-SATURDAY ARE LOW, BUT MAY HAVE
TO WATCH FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BREEZIER DAYS IN
SNOW- FREE AREAS, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
UNDERNEATH THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK, LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY ARLINGTON
TO SIOUX FALLS TO LE MARS AND POINTS EAST. THIS AREA OF STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE ON ITS WESTERN EDGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
EXPAND WESTWARD AGAIN OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT, BUT ALSO EXPAND WESTWARD AS WELL. MOST OF THE AREA SEES FOG
TONIGHT, THOUGH THE OVERALL "THICKNESS" OF THE FOG WILL
DECREASE WITH WESTWARD EXTENT. IN OTHER WORDS, AREAS EAST OF
I-29 INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, HENCE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT
WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. FURTHER EXPANSION WESTWARD OF
THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT, SO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST! AS TEMPERATURES COOL OFF TONIGHT, MANY OF US
LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND FREEZING MAINLY NORTH OF I-90, SO ANY FOG
COULD FREEZE TO MAINLY ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS OVERPASSES,
BRIDGES, AND TREES.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. REPORTS OF DRIZZLE TODAY HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY AT BEST AS THE STRATUS LAYER IS ONLY MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF IT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO AT
LEAST CONTINUE THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD ANY DRIZZLE, INCLUDING
FREEZING DRIZZLE, WILL BE, BUT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DOES
FORM (AGAIN MAINLY NORTH OF I-90), MAY CAUSE A GLAZE OF ICE TO
FORM MAINLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES. ALL THIS TO SAY, FOR THOSE
WITH TRAVEL PLANS EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR ON EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING, BE SURE TO USE EXTRA CAUTION ON THE ROADS AND CHECK
ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE YOU LEAVE! MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE STUCK
UNDER STRATUS CHRISTMAS DAY, KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S. SO STILL MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT
NOT RECORD BREAKING. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AS YOU HEAD WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER, WITH HIGHS IN SOUTH- CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
IN THE UPPER-50S TO NEAR 60.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE MILD DAYS, BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
STILL SET TO MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AIR TO THE AREA. LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING ARE NOT LOOKING AS COLD, BUT
WE STILL LOOK TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY IS NOW TRENDING TOWARDS BEING THE COLDEST NIGHT
OVER THE PERIOD, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO THE NEGATIVE TEENS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90. WE LOOK
TO SEE A RETURN TO MILDER TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY OF NEXT.
PRECIPITATION-WISE, STILL LOOKING AT ONLY LOW-END LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ON SUNDAY WHEN LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LOOK
POSSIBLE, BUT NOTHING TOO IMPACTFUL EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. CEILINGS IN THE STRATUS ARE MOSTLY DOWN TO
LIFR LEVELS WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM THE ENTIRE FLIGHT
CATEGORY SPECTRUM FROM VFR/MVFR/IFR/LIFR. THUS, FOG IS PRESENT WHERE
VISIBILITIES HAVE FALLEN BELOW A HALF A MILE. THIS STRATUS/FOG HAS
EXPANDED WESTWARDS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TO
GO ALONG WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG, LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE BENEATH THE STRATUS/IN THE FOG, MAINLY LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENTLY THINK ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF I-90 WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. THOUGH A BIT
DIFFICULT TO SAY IF KHON WILL SEE ANY PRECIP SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF ITS
TAF FOR NOW. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW BEFORE THE FOG LOOKS TO
RETREAT EASTWARDS COME THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS REDUCTION IN THE
FOG LOOKS TO ONLY WORK EASTWARDS TO ABOUT I-29 BEFORE STOPPING AND
REMAINING SETTLED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN A SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING, THINK
THAT THE FOG MAY LIFT, THOUGH STILL LEAVE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR
LEVELS. CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN PERSISTENT AT LIFR THRESHOLDS FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
COME TOMORROW EVENING, REMAINING STRATUS LOOKS TO SETTLE AGAIN AND
BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR FOG BACK TO THE AREA. CURRENTLY, THE FOG
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS EXPANSIVE IN COVERAGE, MAINLY AFFECTING
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-29. THAT SAID, WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS IN THE FOG AND STRATUS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR SDZ039-040-
053>056-059>071.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ071-080-081-
089-090-097-098.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...MEYERS
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