535
FXUS63 KFSD 280158
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
758 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE FOG JUST WILL NOT GIVE UP. EXPECT AREAS MOSTLY EAST OF
I-29 TO SEE A RESURGENCE OF FOG TONIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORY
OUT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY DURING
THIS TIME. WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF I-29.
- SNOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED UPWARDS A
BIT, ABOUT 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO ABOUT
3 INCHES POSSIBLE EAST OF I-29. THE STRONG WINDS WITH THE
FALLING SNOW WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
REDUCED VISIBILITY WITHIN THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY CREATE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF NORTHWEST IA.
- MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STRONG WINDS, LEADING TO
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 753 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
NUMEROUS HEADLINE UPDATES OVER THE LAST HOUR, AS FORECAST
REMAINS ON LARGELY TRACK. DENSE FOG HAS BEGUN TO MIGRATE INTO
THE I-29 CORRIDOR, SO HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
WESTWARD AFTER AN EARLIER EXPANSION NORTH INTO THE US HWY 14
CORRIDOR. FURTHER EXPANSIONS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
ON JUST HOW FAR WEST DENSEST FOG WILL GO. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLASH FREEZE, IN
ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED BLOWING SNOW LATER SUNDAY, EXPANDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN SD,
BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES.
FINALLY, EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY EAST TO INCLUDE ALL OF
SOUTHWESTERN MN AND NORTHWESTERN IA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
TONIGHT: A LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT, BUT FOR NOW IMPACTS ARE LIMITED WITH THIS DUE TO A
FAIRLY STRONG DRY LAYER BELOW ABOUT 750MB. IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP,
A LITTLE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A WARM LAYER
AROUND 900-800MB. TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR OR
ABOVE FREEZING AS WELL WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE IMPACTS. LATER
TONIGHT THE MAIN WAVE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
SD, LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF SNOW AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS. THE BAND OF SNOW SHOULD BE APPROACHING I-
29 BY 11-13Z SUNDAY MORNING. THIS BAND QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST INTO
SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA ON SUNDAY MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY ENDS
BY MID AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST MN AND
PARTICULARLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE SNOW COULD
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AND SOME WRAP AROUND INTO THE EVENING WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS. ONE TRICKY SPOT WILL BE DOWN I-29
WHERE SNOW WILL FALL FROM ABOUT 11Z THROUGH 18Z, BUT ONCE THE SNOW
ENDS IT IS LIKELY THAT THE VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE, SO THAT ANY
LOCATION ALONG THIS ROUTE MAY BE LIMITED TO 3-4 HOURS OF
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
MAY ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN SD BUT CONFIDENCE FOR NOW IS
PRETTY LOW AS TEMPERATURES IN MUCH OF THE LAYER FALL COLDER THAN THE
DGZ AND MOISTURE APPEARS A BIT LIMITED.
OTHERWISE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHTER
WINDS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST IA
AND NEARBY AREAS OF SD AND SW MN. THIS FOG WILL LINGER TO SOMETIME
BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z TONIGHT.
WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND INFLUX OF COLD AIR, WIND CHILLS WILL FALL
TO -10 TO -20 SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
MONDAY WILL BE COLD AND BREEZY AND HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE TEENS MOST LOCATIONS. WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO ARE ALSO EXPECTED INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
OVER ANY FRESH SNOW AND MAYBE SOME LOWER 40S NEAR AND WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER.
NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A
FEW UPS AND DOWNS ON TEMPERATURES WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
FOG, INCLUDING DENSE FOG WITH VIS BELOW 1/2 SM, CONTINUES EAST
OF I-29 AND EXPECT EXPANSION FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TO THE WEST, EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH A MIX OF PRECIP INITIALLY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. STRONG WINDS WITH AND AFTER THE
SNOW WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FALLING SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LINGERING FLURRIES TO SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF KFSD THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR
CONDITIONS, LOWEST WITH THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING
SNOW. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND
40 TO 45 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR SDZ040-056-062-
067-071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
FOR SDZ040-055-056-061-062-066-067-069>071.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR SDZ040-055-056-061-062-066-067-069>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM CST
SUNDAY FOR SDZ038-039-052>054-057>060-064-065-068.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR SDZ038-039-050-
052>054-057>060-063>065-068.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
081-089-090-097-098.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ013-014.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR NEZ013-014.
UPDATE...SG
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page