914
FXUS63 KFSD 282326
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
526 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WRAP AROUND SNOW AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL BRING BACK THE THREAT FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST IA AND SOUTHWEST MN. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR AND EAST OF I-29. WEST OF
I-29 CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED, BUT NEAR HIGHWAY 14 THIS
EVENING SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW COULD REDUCE THE VISIBILITY
AGAIN.
- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 45 TO 55 MPH THROUGH THE
EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH MONDAY.
- MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STRONG WINDS, LEADING TO
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
- AFTER TONIGHT, THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACTFUL SYSTEMS WILL BE
LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND ROTATE SOUTHEAST,
LEAVING THE AREA WITH WINDY CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY. AS THIS LOW WRAPS
UP, WARMING ALOFT PUSHES TEMPERATURES FROM BELOW THE DGZ BACK INTO
THE DGZ AND SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO AREA MAINLY NORTH
OF I-90 WEST OF I-29 AND SOUTH INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST IA NEAR AND
EAST OF I-29 THIS EVENING. WITH ROUGHLY 1-4 INCHES OF FRESH, POWDERY
SNOW IN PLACE AND WIND GUSTS CONTINUING AT 45 TO 55 MPH, REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT, AND LIKELY BE 1/4 MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA WHERE THE
HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE. A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY IS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE COMING BACK DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH THIS
WRAP AROUND, THUS THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING
THIS TIME THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE AS
SNOW THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHTER OR POSSIBLY NOT OCCUR AT ALL, SO
WE WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF VISIBILITIES IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THE ADVISORY IN TIME AND AREAL COVERAGE.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK. ONCE EXCEPTION MAY BE WEDNESDAY WHEN A WEAK WAVE
MOVES QUICKLY BY. FOR NOW IMPACTS APPEAR LIMITED WITH THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF I-90. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE WARM LAYER ALOFT AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
MAY BECOME POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
SNOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK SOUTH INTO THE US HWY 14 CORRIDOR
AS OF THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. WE'LL SEE WRAP AROUND SNOW
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER, WITH THE HEAVIEST (UP TO 2 ADDITIONAL
INCHES) ACROSS SW MN AND NW IA THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY WITH FALLING SNOW.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 45 KNOTS THIS EVENING
WILL SLOWLY TAPER DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD - STILL GUSTING AROUND
30 KNOTS EAST OF I-29 INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS,
COMBINED WITH NEW AND FALLING SNOW, WILL LEAD TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY. OUTSIDE OF FALLING SNOW, SHOULD SEE LOWER END VFR TO
MVFR VISIBILITY, WITH SOME IFR BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR SW MN AND NW IA.
MVFR STRATUS LIFTS THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY, AND WITH BLOWING
SNOW DIMINISHING, SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR BY/DURING
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ040-055-
056-061-062-066-067-069>071.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ040-055-056-
061-062-066-067-069>071.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-039-050-
052>054-057>060-063>065-068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ039-
054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ098.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-072-080-
081-089-090-097-098.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
089-090-097.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ001-012-
020>022-031-032.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ002-003-013-014.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SG
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